Weekly Synthesis

Deviating from Trend

• Claude / ChatGPT YouTube Search Interest (US) (AI): 5.26 × — +5.7σ from trend
• Military Spending (EU vs US): 0.48 × — +3.2σ from trend
• U.S. Trade Balance: Goods (Fragmentation): $-105.6B — -2.9σ from trend
• Median Rent (San Francisco): 4.5k — +2.5σ from trend
• Labor Force Participation Rate, 55+ (Aging): 36.9% — -2.4σ from trend
• Urban Population in Roman Cities (Roman Empire): 800.0k — +2.2σ from trend
• Gold (Macro): $4.2k — -2.2σ from trend
• U.S. Industrial Production (World War II): 12.06 index — -2.1σ from trend

Regime Shifts

• US 10-Year Treasury Yield (Macro): 5.2% — regime shift up on 2026-09-03
• High Yield Credit Spreads (Macro): 3.1% — regime shift up on 2026-10-02
• Semiconductor Index (SOX) (Macro): 12.2k — regime shift up on 2026-08-12
• Oil (WTI) (Macro): $96.2 — regime shift up on 2026-09-04
• 10Y Treasury Yield (Debt): 5.2% — regime shift up on 2026-09-03

Trend Acceleration

• Aggregate Hyperscaler Capex (AI): $112.5B — trend accelerating
• Cameco (Uranium) (Energy): $86.1 — trend accelerating
• Durable Goods Orders (Fragmentation): $338.5B — trend accelerating
• Copper Miners ETF (COPX) (Hard Constraints): $85.3 — trend accelerating
• Median Rent (Palo Alto): 4.6k — trend accelerating
• Claude / ChatGPT YouTube Search Interest (US) (AI): 5.26 × — trend accelerating
• Gold (Macro): $4.2k — trend accelerating
• Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) (Fragmentation): $66.2 — trend accelerating

Largest Moves

• Best SWE-bench Verified Score (AI): 93.9% — +2120.0% YoY
• Frontier 50% Task-Completion Time (AI): 11.98 hours — +1200.8% YoY
• Claude / ChatGPT YouTube Search Interest (US) (AI): 5.26 × — +1177.4% YoY
• China Share of Global EV Sales (Electric Tech Stack): 58.0% — -700.0% YoY
• Anthropic (Big Tech & AI Revenue): $4.8B — +533.3% YoY
• UK Government Debt (% GDP) (World War I): 155.0% — -500.0% YoY
• China Share of Global EV Battery Cell Output (Electric Tech Stack): 75.0% — +300.0% YoY
• Frontier Lab Revenue (AI): $13.5B — +297.1% YoY