China Share of Global EV Battery Cell Output
China's share of global lithium-ion battery cell production for EVs — the headline number in Noah Smith's argument. From roughly a third of world output a decade ago to ~75% today. Source: BNEF / industry estimates, author-curated annual snapshots.
75.0%
Trend YoY growth is +4.1%, slowing by 26 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +3.0%, 108 bps below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 265 bps due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change
y = 5.9% − 26 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 50.0 | 65.0 | 73.0 | 81.0 | 90.0 | 100.0 | 111.9 | 119.9 | 169.8 | 224.7 | 284.6 | 603% |
| 2018 | 53.0 | 57.0 | 59.0 | 62.0 | 66.0 | 72.0 | 74.0 | 72.1 | 69.1 | 65.1 | 61% | |
| 2019 | 56.0 | 58.0 | 60.7 | 64.4 | 70.1 | 71.8 | 67.3 | 61.5 | 54.4 | 102% | ||
| 2020 | 60.0 | 62.3 | 66.4 | 72.5 | 74.6 | 73.3 | 71.1 | 68.0 | 72% | |||
| 2021 | 65.0 | 67.3 | 73.4 | 75.5 | 75.1 | 73.8 | 71.6 | 60% | ||||
| 2022 | 72.0 | 79.4 | 83.4 | 92.8 | 103.2 | 114.6 | 147% | |||||
| 2023 | 75.0 | 80.3 | 85.9 | 91.8 | 98.0 | |||||||
| 2024 | 80.3 | 85.9 | 91.8 | 98.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +10.0% | +15.0% | +20.0% | +25.0% | +30.0% | +34.9% | +39.9% | +44.9% | +49.9% | +54.9% | +59.9% | 603% |
| 2018 | +3.0% | +4.0% | +3.0% | +2.0% | +1.0% | +0.0% | -1.0% | -2.0% | -3.0% | -4.0% | 61% | |
| 2019 | +3.0% | +2.0% | +0.7% | -0.6% | -1.9% | -3.2% | -4.5% | -5.8% | -7.1% | 102% | ||
| 2020 | +4.0% | +2.3% | +1.4% | +0.5% | -0.4% | -1.3% | -2.2% | -3.1% | 72% | |||
| 2021 | +5.0% | +2.3% | +1.4% | +0.5% | -0.4% | -1.3% | -2.2% | 60% | ||||
| 2022 | +7.0% | +7.4% | +8.4% | +9.4% | +10.4% | +11.4% | 147% | |||||
| 2023 | +3.0% | +5.3% | +5.6% | +5.9% | +6.2% | |||||||
| 2024 | +5.3% | +5.6% | +5.9% | +6.2% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.