Gold
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
Key Insight
Gold is trading near $3,350/oz, up roughly 65% over 30 months and making all-time highs in every major currency — a move that has decisively broken from its traditional inverse relationship with real yields and deserves to be read as something other than a standard inflation hedge.
$4.2k
Trend YoY growth is +35.5%, accelerating by 4.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: +25.6%, 9.9 pp below trend, a 0.62σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 8.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul 3.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.0% + 4.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (USD/oz)
Projected value (USD/oz)
| Forecast made in | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | $4.3k | $4.6k | $4.8k | $5.4k | $5.9k | $6.0k | $6.2k | $6.4k | $6.9k | $7.8k | $8.3k | $9.0k | $9.5k | $10.5k | $12.0k | $10.9k | $11.0k | $11.1k | $10.0k | $10.6k | $17.8k | 123% |
| Jan '26 | $4.7k | $5.0k | $5.7k | $6.2k | $6.4k | $6.7k | $6.9k | $7.5k | $8.6k | $9.2k | $10.0k | $10.6k | $11.9k | $13.5k | $12.3k | $12.6k | $12.7k | $11.5k | $12.3k | $22.6k | 175% | |
| Feb '26 | $5.2k | $5.6k | $6.1k | $6.3k | $6.6k | $6.8k | $7.4k | $8.4k | $9.0k | $9.8k | $10.3k | $11.6k | $13.2k | $12.0k | $12.2k | $12.4k | $11.2k | $11.9k | $21.5k | 198% | ||
| Mar '26 | $4.6k | $5.7k | $5.8k | $5.9k | $6.1k | $6.5k | $7.3k | $7.8k | $8.4k | $8.7k | $9.7k | $10.9k | $9.9k | $10.0k | $10.0k | $9.0k | $9.5k | $15.0k | 171% | |||
| Apr '26 | $4.6k | $5.2k | $5.2k | $5.2k | $5.4k | $5.9k | $6.1k | $6.4k | $6.6k | $7.1k | $7.8k | $6.9k | $6.8k | $6.7k | $5.8k | $6.0k | $7.7k | 118% | ||||
| May '26 | $4.6k | $4.7k | $4.5k | $4.6k | $4.8k | $4.8k | $4.8k | $4.7k | $4.9k | $5.1k | $4.3k | $4.0k | $3.7k | $3.0k | $2.9k | $2.9k | 75% | |||||
| Jun '26 | $4.0k | $4.1k | $3.9k | $4.0k | $3.7k | $3.5k | $3.2k | $3.0k | $2.8k | $2.1k | $1.6k | $1.1k | $594.2 | $210.3 | $-199.2 | 8% | ||||||
| Jul '26 | $4.2k | $3.9k | $3.9k | $3.7k | $3.5k | $3.1k | $2.9k | $2.7k | $1.9k | $1.4k | $972.6 | $440.6 | $38.1 | $-370.4 | ||||||||
| Aug '26 | $3.9k | $3.9k | $3.7k | $3.5k | $3.1k | $2.9k | $2.7k | $1.9k | $1.4k | $972.6 | $440.6 | $38.1 | $-370.4 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | +62.7% | +63.2% | +68.3% | +73.0% | +78.1% | +83.1% | +88.2% | +93.2% | +98.4% | +103.5% | +108.5% | +113.6% | +118.6% | +123.8% | +128.9% | +133.6% | +138.7% | +143.7% | +148.8% | +153.8% | +159.0% | 123% |
| Jan '26 | +67.6% | +74.9% | +81.3% | +88.4% | +95.4% | +102.5% | +109.4% | +116.6% | +123.7% | +130.6% | +137.8% | +144.7% | +151.8% | +159.0% | +165.4% | +172.5% | +179.5% | +186.6% | +193.5% | +200.7% | 175% | |
| Feb '26 | +84.4% | +79.1% | +85.8% | +92.3% | +99.1% | +105.6% | +112.3% | +119.0% | +125.5% | +132.2% | +138.7% | +145.4% | +152.1% | +158.2% | +164.9% | +171.4% | +178.1% | +184.6% | +191.3% | 198% | ||
| Mar '26 | +49.0% | +73.2% | +76.7% | +80.4% | +83.9% | +87.5% | +91.2% | +94.7% | +98.3% | +101.9% | +105.5% | +109.1% | +112.4% | +116.1% | +119.6% | +123.2% | +126.8% | +130.4% | 171% | |||
| Apr '26 | +43.8% | +58.7% | +57.6% | +56.6% | +55.6% | +54.5% | +53.5% | +52.4% | +51.4% | +50.4% | +49.3% | +48.4% | +47.3% | +46.3% | +45.3% | +44.3% | +43.2% | 118% | ||||
| May '26 | +38.7% | +42.5% | +36.9% | +31.2% | +25.5% | +20.0% | +14.3% | +8.7% | +3.0% | -2.7% | -7.9% | -13.6% | -19.1% | -24.8% | -30.4% | -36.1% | 75% | |||||
| Jun '26 | +20.6% | +23.6% | +13.6% | +3.5% | -6.3% | -16.3% | -26.1% | -36.2% | -46.2% | -55.3% | -65.4% | -75.2% | -85.2% | -95.0% | -105.1% | 8% | ||||||
| Jul '26 | +25.6% | +12.7% | +2.3% | -7.7% | -18.1% | -28.1% | -38.5% | -48.9% | -58.3% | -68.6% | -78.7% | -89.0% | -99.1% | -109.5% | ||||||||
| Aug '26 | +12.7% | +2.3% | -7.7% | -18.1% | -28.1% | -38.5% | -48.9% | -58.3% | -68.6% | -78.7% | -89.0% | -99.1% | -109.5% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 6M window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.