China Share of Global EV Sales
China's share of global electric car sales each year. From ~38% in 2015 to ~58% in 2023 — China alone now outsells the rest of the world combined in some years. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook.
58.0%
Trend YoY growth is +1.3%, slowing by 33 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -7.0%, 834 bps below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1433 bps due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change
y = 3.7% − 33 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 48.0 | 53.0 | 59.0 | 53.0 | 48.0 | 54.0 | 70.0 | 63.0 | 68.0 | 73.0 | 78.0 | 109% |
| 2018 | 54.0 | 60.3 | 54.8 | 50.3 | 56.8 | 73.3 | 66.8 | 76.2 | 86.0 | 96.3 | 146% | |
| 2019 | 48.0 | 42.5 | 34.3 | 37.1 | 49.9 | 39.7 | 18.2 | -6.5 | -34.4 | 136% | ||
| 2020 | 43.0 | 34.7 | 37.6 | 50.5 | 40.4 | 19.7 | -4.1 | -31.0 | 172% | |||
| 2021 | 49.0 | 47.5 | 62.6 | 54.7 | 50.5 | 45.4 | 39.4 | 88% | ||||
| 2022 | 65.0 | 78.0 | 74.2 | 93.6 | 116.2 | 142.0 | 286% | |||||
| 2023 | 58.0 | 64.5 | 72.9 | 83.2 | 95.4 | |||||||
| 2024 | 64.5 | 72.9 | 83.2 | 95.4 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +5.0% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +5.0% | 109% |
| 2018 | +6.0% | +6.3% | +6.8% | +7.3% | +7.8% | +8.3% | +8.8% | +9.3% | +9.8% | +10.3% | 146% | |
| 2019 | -6.0% | -5.5% | -8.7% | -11.9% | -15.1% | -18.3% | -21.5% | -24.7% | -27.9% | 136% | ||
| 2020 | -5.0% | -8.3% | -11.4% | -14.5% | -17.6% | -20.7% | -23.8% | -26.9% | 172% | |||
| 2021 | +6.0% | -1.5% | -2.4% | -3.3% | -4.2% | -5.1% | -6.0% | 88% | ||||
| 2022 | +16.0% | +13.0% | +16.2% | +19.4% | +22.6% | +25.8% | 286% | |||||
| 2023 | -7.0% | +6.5% | +8.4% | +10.3% | +12.2% | |||||||
| 2024 | +6.5% | +8.4% | +10.3% | +12.2% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.