Aggregate Hyperscaler Capex
Combined quarterly capital expenditure of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta
Key Insight
Combined quarterly capex at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta reached $112.5B in Q3 2025 — more than double the $53.1B a year earlier and roughly 4x the pre-AI baseline of ~$28B/quarter in 2022, putting the group on a ~$450B annualized spending pace.
$112.5B
Trend YoY growth is +104.4%, accelerating by 45.4 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +111.9%, 7.4 pp above trend, a 0.70σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 5.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul 1.
Level
YoY %
y = −9.0% + 45.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($B)
Projected value ($B)
| Forecast made in | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | $60.5B | $75.0B | $95.2B | $113.8B | $137.4B | $173.4B | $206.9B | $298.1B | $381.7B | 16% |
| Q1 '25 | $72.3B | $96.1B | $115.4B | $139.8B | $177.0B | $211.8B | $306.0B | $399.4B | 23% | |
| Q2 '25 | $82.0B | $107.7B | $129.6B | $163.2B | $194.2B | $279.2B | $336.5B | 8% | ||
| Q3 '25 | $112.5B | $129.4B | $162.4B | $192.8B | $276.4B | $331.8B | ||||
| Q4 '25 | $129.4B | $162.4B | $192.8B | $276.4B | $331.8B |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | +73.8% | +89.3% | +101.7% | +114.4% | +127.1% | +139.9% | +152.4% | +165.0% | +177.8% | 16% |
| Q1 '25 | +82.6% | +103.6% | +117.3% | +131.1% | +144.8% | +158.3% | +172.0% | +185.8% | 23% | |
| Q2 '25 | +73.7% | +102.8% | +114.3% | +125.7% | +136.9% | +148.2% | +159.6% | 8% | ||
| Q3 '25 | +111.9% | +113.9% | +124.6% | +135.1% | +145.7% | +156.4% | ||||
| Q4 '25 | +113.9% | +124.6% | +135.1% | +145.7% | +156.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 2Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.