Frontier 50% Task-Completion Time
How long a task can be (in minutes) for frontier models to complete it 50% of the time
11.98hours
Trend YoY growth is +589.8%, accelerating by 99.5 pp/year over the last 3Y. Latest: +1200.8%, 610.9 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 52.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb 24. At current levels, YoY would fall to +449.5% by Aug '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 301.1% + 99.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (hours)
Projected value (hours)
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | 0.92 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.02 | -0.68 | -0.80 | -4.98 | -12.63 | -46.17 | 3.69 | 111% |
| Q3 '25 | 2.18 | 3.40 | 6.90 | 19.71 | 40.41 | 127.1 | 33% | ||||
| Q4 '25 | 4.11 | 6.78 | 19.33 | 39.61 | 124.5 | 47% | |||||
| Q1 '26 | 11.98 | 24.81 | 51.39 | 163.0 | |||||||
| Q2 '26 | 24.81 | 51.39 | 163.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | +443.0% | +61.0% | -17.4% | -95.8% | -174.3% | -250.1% | -328.6% | -407.0% | -485.4% | -561.3% | 111% |
| Q3 '25 | +462.5% | +570.4% | +649.1% | +725.2% | +803.8% | +882.5% | +961.1% | +1037.2% | 33% | ||
| Q4 '25 | +710.3% | +636.3% | +710.2% | +786.6% | +863.1% | +939.5% | +1013.4% | 47% | |||
| Q1 '26 | +1200.8% | +926.7% | +1038.0% | +1149.4% | +1260.7% | +1368.4% | |||||
| Q2 '26 | +926.7% | +1038.0% | +1149.4% | +1260.7% | +1368.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 2Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.