10Y Treasury Yield
Benchmark cost of government borrowing — higher yields increase the cost of rolling over debt.
Key Insight
The 10Y Treasury yield is trading near 4.3% in April 2026, having held a 3.8%–4.8% range for roughly three years — a regime shift that markets have now accepted as durable rather than cyclical, and the single most consequential repricing for the fiscal path.
4.4%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 158 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.1%, 31 bps below trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 67 bps due to an easy comparison base from May 1.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct '25 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 97% |
| Nov '25 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 168% | |
| Dec '25 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 236% | ||
| Jan '26 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 278% | |||
| Feb '26 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 385% | ||||
| Mar '26 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 333% | |||||
| Apr '26 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 433% | ||||||
| May '26 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | ||||||||
| Jun '26 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct '25 | -0.3% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 97% |
| Nov '25 | -0.2% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | 168% | |
| Dec '25 | -0.4% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 236% | ||
| Jan '26 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 278% | |||
| Feb '26 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 385% | ||||
| Mar '26 | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | 333% | |||||
| Apr '26 | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 433% | ||||||
| May '26 | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | ||||||||
| Jun '26 | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.