Frontier Lab Revenue
Combined estimated quarterly revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic.
13.50$B
Trend YoY growth is +166.2%, slowing by 179.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: +297.1%, 130.9 pp above trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 122.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr 1. At current levels, YoY would fall to +107.7% by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 570.4% − 179.7 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($B)
Projected value ($B)
| Forecast made in | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 | Q3 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 '25 | 5.00 | 2.13 | 0.56 | -2.43 | -8.31 | -17.04 | -38.49 | -61.01 | 45.44 | 125% |
| Q4 '25 | 6.50 | 3.60 | 2.39 | -0.22 | -5.20 | -16.71 | -30.96 | 0.67 | 98% | |
| Q1 '26 | 10.75 | 10.26 | 13.88 | 16.45 | 24.56 | 27.60 | 25.01 | 32% | ||
| Q2 '26 | 13.50 | 15.99 | 19.61 | 30.47 | 35.87 | 39.61 | ||||
| Q3 '26 | 15.99 | 19.61 | 30.47 | 35.87 | 39.61 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 | Q3 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 '25 | +250.9% | +18.3% | -77.6% | -171.4% | -266.3% | -362.2% | -458.1% | -551.9% | -646.8% | 125% |
| Q4 '25 | +261.1% | +44.1% | -29.8% | -104.5% | -180.0% | -255.5% | -329.3% | -404.0% | 98% | |
| Q1 '26 | +330.0% | +201.9% | +177.6% | +153.1% | +128.5% | +104.5% | +80.2% | 32% | ||
| Q2 '26 | +297.1% | +219.8% | +201.6% | +183.5% | +165.7% | +147.7% | ||||
| Q3 '26 | +219.8% | +201.6% | +183.5% | +165.7% | +147.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 2Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.