U.S. Industrial Production
Best high-frequency public series for the scale and timing of American industrial mobilization — the arsenal effect.
12.06index
Trend YoY growth is +10.2%, accelerating by 34 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 21 consecutive periods. Latest: -27.0%, 37.3 pp below trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Dec 1. At current levels, YoY would rise to -25.6% by Mar '46 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.4% + 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (index)
Projected value (index)
| Forecast made in | May '45 | Jun '45 | Jul '45 | Aug '45 | Sep '45 | Oct '45 | Nov '45 | Dec '45 | Jan '46 | Feb '46 | Mar '46 | Apr '46 | May '46 | Jun '46 | Jul '46 | Aug '46 | Sep '46 | Oct '46 | Nov '46 | Dec '46 | Jan '47 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '45 | 15.48 | 15.19 | 14.93 | 14.89 | 14.55 | 14.36 | 14.01 | 13.73 | 13.36 | 13.09 | 12.79 | 12.33 | 11.78 | 11.29 | 10.83 | 9.51 | 8.49 | 7.99 | 8.11 | 7.98 | 8.64 | 36% |
| Jun '45 | 15.13 | 14.92 | 14.88 | 14.54 | 14.35 | 14.00 | 13.72 | 13.35 | 13.07 | 12.78 | 12.31 | 11.76 | 11.28 | 10.81 | 9.50 | 8.48 | 7.97 | 8.10 | 7.97 | 8.62 | 40% | |
| Jul '45 | 14.78 | 14.89 | 14.57 | 14.39 | 14.04 | 13.77 | 13.41 | 13.14 | 12.85 | 12.39 | 11.85 | 11.37 | 10.91 | 9.59 | 8.56 | 8.06 | 8.20 | 8.07 | 8.78 | 48% | ||
| Aug '45 | 13.25 | 14.07 | 13.84 | 13.45 | 13.13 | 12.72 | 12.40 | 12.07 | 11.58 | 11.01 | 10.50 | 10.01 | 8.74 | 7.76 | 7.25 | 7.32 | 7.15 | 7.32 | 36% | |||
| Sep '45 | 12.06 | 13.21 | 12.75 | 12.37 | 11.90 | 11.52 | 11.13 | 10.59 | 9.99 | 9.44 | 8.92 | 7.71 | 6.76 | 6.25 | 6.23 | 6.01 | 5.68 | 18% | ||||
| Oct '45 | 11.58 | 12.15 | 11.70 | 11.16 | 10.70 | 10.25 | 9.66 | 9.01 | 8.41 | 7.85 | 6.69 | 5.78 | 5.26 | 5.15 | 4.87 | 4.22 | 6% | |||||
| Nov '45 | 12.01 | 11.51 | 10.94 | 10.45 | 9.97 | 9.34 | 8.67 | 8.06 | 7.47 | 6.33 | 5.42 | 4.89 | 4.74 | 4.44 | 3.72 | 12% | ||||||
| Dec '45 | 12.06 | 10.93 | 10.42 | 9.93 | 9.29 | 8.60 | 7.97 | 7.37 | 6.22 | 5.32 | 4.78 | 4.61 | 4.29 | 3.57 | ||||||||
| Jan '46 | 10.93 | 10.42 | 9.93 | 9.29 | 8.60 | 7.97 | 7.37 | 6.22 | 5.32 | 4.78 | 4.61 | 4.29 | 3.57 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | May '45 | Jun '45 | Jul '45 | Aug '45 | Sep '45 | Oct '45 | Nov '45 | Dec '45 | Jan '46 | Feb '46 | Mar '46 | Apr '46 | May '46 | Jun '46 | Jul '46 | Aug '46 | Sep '46 | Oct '46 | Nov '46 | Dec '46 | Jan '47 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '45 | -7.0% | -8.4% | -9.8% | -11.3% | -12.7% | -14.1% | -15.5% | -16.9% | -18.4% | -19.8% | -21.1% | -22.5% | -23.9% | -25.4% | -26.8% | -28.2% | -29.6% | -31.0% | -32.5% | -33.9% | -35.3% | 36% |
| Jun '45 | -8.8% | -9.9% | -11.3% | -12.8% | -14.2% | -15.6% | -17.0% | -18.4% | -19.9% | -21.2% | -22.6% | -24.0% | -25.5% | -26.9% | -28.3% | -29.7% | -31.1% | -32.6% | -34.0% | -35.4% | 40% | |
| Jul '45 | -10.7% | -11.2% | -12.6% | -14.0% | -15.4% | -16.7% | -18.1% | -19.5% | -20.7% | -22.1% | -23.5% | -24.9% | -26.2% | -27.6% | -29.0% | -30.4% | -31.8% | -33.1% | -34.5% | 48% | ||
| Aug '45 | -21.0% | -15.6% | -17.2% | -18.9% | -20.6% | -22.3% | -24.0% | -25.6% | -27.3% | -28.9% | -30.6% | -32.3% | -34.0% | -35.7% | -37.4% | -39.1% | -40.7% | -42.4% | 36% | |||
| Sep '45 | -27.6% | -21.0% | -23.1% | -25.2% | -27.3% | -29.4% | -31.3% | -33.4% | -35.5% | -37.6% | -39.7% | -41.8% | -43.9% | -46.0% | -48.1% | -50.2% | -52.3% | 18% | ||||
| Oct '45 | -30.8% | -26.8% | -29.3% | -31.8% | -34.4% | -36.7% | -39.3% | -41.8% | -44.4% | -46.9% | -49.5% | -52.1% | -54.6% | -57.1% | -59.6% | -62.2% | 6% | |||||
| Nov '45 | -27.6% | -30.4% | -33.2% | -36.0% | -38.5% | -41.3% | -44.0% | -46.8% | -49.5% | -52.3% | -55.0% | -57.7% | -60.5% | -63.2% | -66.0% | 12% | ||||||
| Dec '45 | -27.0% | -33.2% | -36.1% | -38.7% | -41.6% | -44.4% | -47.3% | -50.1% | -53.0% | -55.9% | -58.7% | -61.6% | -64.4% | -67.3% | ||||||||
| Jan '46 | -33.2% | -36.1% | -38.7% | -41.6% | -44.4% | -47.3% | -50.1% | -53.0% | -55.9% | -58.7% | -61.6% | -64.4% | -67.3% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.