Claude / ChatGPT YouTube Search Interest (US)
Ratio of Google Trends YouTube search interest for Claude divided by ChatGPT, US only — a proxy for how much creator and viewer attention Claude is capturing relative to the category leader in its core market.
5.26×
Trend YoY growth is +155.7%, accelerating by 52.7 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 52 consecutive periods. Latest: +1177.4%, 1021.8 pp above trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 132.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr 17.
Level
YoY %
y = 29.0% + 52.7 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.26 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.06 | -0.20 | -0.03 | 127% |
| Oct '25 | 0.54 | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.51 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.01 | -0.28 | -0.03 | 120% | |
| Nov '25 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.29 | 0.57 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.66 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 0.06 | 121% | ||
| Dec '25 | 0.75 | 0.32 | 0.66 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.73 | 1.34 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 0.23 | 102% | |||
| Jan '26 | 1.21 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.86 | 0.82 | 0.67 | 0.86 | 1.30 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 1.30 | 2.13 | 4.21 | 6.66 | 9.74 | 1.62 | 92% | ||||
| Feb '26 | 2.35 | 0.80 | 0.82 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.11 | 1.45 | 2.25 | 1.58 | 1.57 | 2.39 | 4.00 | 8.04 | 12.93 | 19.20 | 5.08 | 88% | |||||
| Mar '26 | 3.67 | 1.20 | 2.02 | 2.03 | 1.73 | 2.30 | 3.64 | 2.59 | 2.60 | 4.01 | 6.76 | 13.74 | 22.28 | 33.35 | 13.31 | 81% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | 5.26 | 2.90 | 2.95 | 2.55 | 3.42 | 5.45 | 3.91 | 3.96 | 6.13 | 10.41 | 21.25 | 34.61 | 52.04 | 29.94 | ||||||||
| May '26 | 2.90 | 2.95 | 2.55 | 3.42 | 5.45 | 3.91 | 3.96 | 6.13 | 10.41 | 21.25 | 34.61 | 52.04 | 29.94 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | +86.0% | -8.0% | -13.4% | -18.7% | -24.1% | -29.5% | -34.4% | -39.9% | -45.1% | -50.6% | -55.8% | -61.3% | -66.7% | -71.9% | -77.4% | -82.6% | -88.1% | -93.5% | -98.4% | -103.8% | -109.1% | 127% |
| Oct '25 | +11.6% | -12.5% | -17.9% | -23.5% | -29.0% | -34.1% | -39.7% | -45.1% | -50.6% | -56.0% | -61.6% | -67.2% | -72.6% | -78.2% | -83.6% | -89.1% | -94.7% | -99.8% | -105.3% | -110.7% | 120% | |
| Nov '25 | -25.7% | -11.0% | -15.4% | -19.8% | -23.8% | -28.3% | -32.6% | -37.0% | -41.3% | -45.7% | -50.1% | -54.4% | -58.8% | -63.1% | -67.5% | -72.0% | -76.0% | -80.4% | -84.7% | 121% | ||
| Dec '25 | +13.0% | -4.4% | -7.4% | -10.2% | -13.2% | -16.1% | -19.1% | -22.0% | -25.0% | -28.0% | -30.9% | -33.9% | -36.8% | -39.8% | -42.9% | -45.6% | -48.6% | -51.5% | 102% | |||
| Jan '26 | +229.6% | +40.2% | +43.2% | +46.5% | +49.6% | +52.9% | +56.1% | +59.3% | +62.6% | +65.8% | +69.1% | +72.2% | +75.5% | +78.8% | +81.7% | +85.0% | +88.2% | 92% | ||||
| Feb '26 | +258.7% | +109.6% | +121.8% | +133.5% | +145.7% | +157.4% | +169.6% | +181.8% | +193.5% | +205.7% | +217.4% | +229.6% | +241.7% | +252.7% | +264.9% | +276.6% | 88% | |||||
| Mar '26 | +805.4% | +225.2% | +250.6% | +276.8% | +302.1% | +328.3% | +354.5% | +379.9% | +406.1% | +431.4% | +457.6% | +483.8% | +507.5% | +533.7% | +559.0% | 81% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | +1177.4% | +402.7% | +447.7% | +491.3% | +536.2% | +581.2% | +624.8% | +669.7% | +713.3% | +758.3% | +803.2% | +843.9% | +888.8% | +932.4% | ||||||||
| May '26 | +402.7% | +447.7% | +491.3% | +536.2% | +581.2% | +624.8% | +669.7% | +713.3% | +758.3% | +803.2% | +843.9% | +888.8% | +932.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.