Oil (WTI)
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
Key Insight
WTI is trading near $68/bbl, stuck in a remarkably narrow $65–$85 range for essentially three years despite two major Middle East escalations, an extended Russia-Ukraine war, and OPEC+ production cuts — the marginal-barrel economics have fundamentally changed, and the old oil-shock playbook no longer applies.
$112.3
Trend YoY growth is +5.2%, slowing by 0.4 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 54 consecutive periods. Latest: +75.5%, 70.3 pp above trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 26.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from May 19.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.7% − 0.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (USD/bbl)
Projected value (USD/bbl)
| Forecast made in | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct '25 | $61.8 | $55.7 | $58.5 | $58.1 | $55.1 | $56.0 | $45.8 | $46.7 | $49.8 | $52.2 | $47.1 | $45.6 | $44.0 | $41.2 | $39.8 | $44.2 | $45.2 | $68.6 | $71.4 | $72.7 | $31.8 | 132% |
| Nov '25 | $58.6 | $59.2 | $58.8 | $55.9 | $56.9 | $46.6 | $47.6 | $50.7 | $53.2 | $48.1 | $46.7 | $45.1 | $42.3 | $40.8 | $45.4 | $46.6 | $70.7 | $73.7 | $75.2 | $33.5 | 143% | |
| Dec '25 | $57.3 | $59.9 | $57.2 | $58.4 | $48.0 | $49.2 | $52.7 | $55.6 | $50.5 | $49.2 | $47.8 | $45.0 | $43.6 | $48.8 | $50.3 | $76.7 | $80.4 | $82.5 | $38.5 | 155% | ||
| Jan '26 | $64.5 | $58.3 | $59.8 | $49.5 | $51.0 | $55.0 | $58.3 | $53.3 | $52.2 | $51.0 | $48.3 | $47.2 | $53.1 | $55.1 | $84.5 | $89.2 | $92.0 | $45.1 | 168% | |||
| Feb '26 | $67.0 | $62.4 | $52.0 | $54.0 | $58.6 | $62.6 | $57.6 | $56.9 | $55.9 | $53.4 | $52.5 | $59.4 | $62.0 | $95.8 | $101.8 | $105.8 | $55.5 | 121% | ||||
| Mar '26 | $102.9 | $61.6 | $65.1 | $72.0 | $78.2 | $73.2 | $73.5 | $73.4 | $71.1 | $71.0 | $81.6 | $86.5 | $135.3 | $145.7 | $153.4 | $100.2 | 94% | |||||
| Apr '26 | $108.6 | $75.8 | $84.9 | $93.4 | $88.5 | $89.9 | $90.7 | $88.9 | $89.5 | $103.9 | $111.1 | $175.1 | $190.2 | $201.7 | $156.7 | 69% | ||||||
| May '26 | $112.3 | $91.3 | $101.0 | $96.3 | $98.3 | $99.7 | $98.1 | $99.2 | $115.7 | $124.1 | $196.3 | $213.8 | $227.5 | $190.5 | ||||||||
| Jun '26 | $91.3 | $101.0 | $96.3 | $98.3 | $99.7 | $98.1 | $99.2 | $115.7 | $124.1 | $196.3 | $213.8 | $227.5 | $190.5 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct '25 | -11.6% | -18.4% | -19.3% | -20.2% | -21.2% | -22.1% | -23.0% | -24.0% | -24.9% | -25.8% | -26.8% | -27.8% | -28.7% | -29.6% | -30.6% | -31.5% | -32.5% | -33.3% | -34.3% | -35.2% | -36.2% | 132% |
| Nov '25 | -14.2% | -18.3% | -19.2% | -20.1% | -20.9% | -21.8% | -22.6% | -23.5% | -24.4% | -25.2% | -26.1% | -27.0% | -27.8% | -28.7% | -29.6% | -30.5% | -31.2% | -32.1% | -33.0% | -33.9% | 143% | |
| Dec '25 | -22.4% | -17.7% | -18.3% | -18.8% | -19.3% | -19.9% | -20.5% | -21.0% | -21.6% | -22.1% | -22.7% | -23.2% | -23.8% | -24.3% | -24.9% | -25.4% | -26.0% | -26.5% | -27.1% | 155% | ||
| Jan '26 | -11.4% | -16.7% | -16.8% | -16.9% | -17.0% | -17.0% | -17.1% | -17.2% | -17.3% | -17.4% | -17.5% | -17.6% | -17.7% | -17.7% | -17.8% | -17.9% | -18.0% | -18.1% | 168% | |||
| Feb '26 | -4.3% | -13.2% | -12.6% | -12.1% | -11.6% | -11.1% | -10.5% | -10.0% | -9.5% | -8.9% | -8.4% | -7.9% | -7.3% | -6.8% | -6.3% | -5.8% | -5.2% | 121% | ||||
| Mar '26 | +43.6% | +3.4% | +6.0% | +8.6% | +11.1% | +13.7% | +16.3% | +18.8% | +21.4% | +23.9% | +26.5% | +29.2% | +31.5% | +34.1% | +36.6% | +39.2% | 94% | |||||
| Apr '26 | +79.3% | +23.3% | +28.1% | +32.7% | +37.5% | +42.3% | +46.9% | +51.7% | +56.4% | +61.1% | +65.9% | +70.2% | +75.0% | +79.7% | +84.4% | 69% | ||||||
| May '26 | +75.5% | +37.7% | +43.5% | +49.6% | +55.6% | +61.4% | +67.5% | +73.3% | +79.3% | +85.4% | +90.8% | +96.8% | +102.7% | +108.7% | ||||||||
| Jun '26 | +37.7% | +43.5% | +49.6% | +55.6% | +61.4% | +67.5% | +73.3% | +79.3% | +85.4% | +90.8% | +96.8% | +102.7% | +108.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.