Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price
Natural gas often sets marginal power prices in the U.S. — the key input cost for electricity generation.
$2.7
Trend YoY growth is +11.4%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 59 consecutive periods. Latest: -4.3%, 15.6 pp below trend, a 0.78σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 18.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from Aug 25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.8% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($/MMBtu)
Projected value ($/MMBtu)
| Forecast made in | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | Sep '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan '26 | $7.2 | $5.5 | $5.5 | $4.0 | $3.5 | $3.8 | $3.3 | $3.0 | $3.0 | $3.2 | $3.9 | $3.1 | $5.2 | $2.0 | $1.7 | $1.4 | $1.6 | $1.4 | $0.9 | $0.8 | $0.7 | 185% |
| Feb '26 | $3.0 | $5.2 | $3.7 | $3.2 | $3.5 | $3.0 | $2.7 | $2.7 | $2.9 | $3.4 | $2.7 | $4.4 | $1.6 | $1.4 | $1.1 | $1.2 | $1.0 | $0.6 | $0.5 | $0.3 | 101% | |
| Mar '26 | $2.9 | $3.7 | $3.2 | $3.5 | $3.1 | $2.8 | $2.9 | $3.1 | $3.8 | $3.1 | $5.3 | $2.0 | $1.8 | $1.6 | $1.8 | $1.6 | $1.1 | $1.1 | $1.0 | 91% | ||
| Apr '26 | $2.6 | $3.2 | $3.5 | $3.1 | $2.8 | $2.9 | $3.2 | $3.9 | $3.3 | $5.5 | $2.2 | $2.0 | $1.7 | $2.0 | $1.9 | $1.4 | $1.3 | $1.3 | 56% | |||
| May '26 | $3.3 | $3.3 | $2.9 | $2.6 | $2.6 | $2.9 | $3.4 | $2.8 | $4.6 | $1.8 | $1.6 | $1.3 | $1.5 | $1.3 | $0.9 | $0.8 | $0.6 | 94% | ||||
| Jun '26 | $3.3 | $2.7 | $2.4 | $2.4 | $2.5 | $2.9 | $2.3 | $3.6 | $1.3 | $1.1 | $0.8 | $0.8 | $0.6 | $0.3 | $0.1 | $-0.1 | 157% | |||||
| Jul '26 | $2.6 | $2.4 | $2.4 | $2.4 | $2.8 | $2.2 | $3.4 | $1.2 | $1.0 | $0.7 | $0.6 | $0.4 | $0.1 | $-0.1 | $-0.2 | 311% | ||||||
| Aug '26 | $2.7 | $2.4 | $2.5 | $2.9 | $2.2 | $3.5 | $1.2 | $1.0 | $0.7 | $0.7 | $0.4 | $0.1 | $-0.1 | $-0.2 | ||||||||
| Sep '26 | $2.4 | $2.5 | $2.9 | $2.2 | $3.5 | $1.2 | $1.0 | $0.7 | $0.7 | $0.4 | $0.1 | $-0.1 | $-0.2 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | Sep '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan '26 | +145.1% | +39.5% | +33.9% | +27.6% | +21.6% | +15.3% | +9.3% | +3.0% | -3.2% | -9.3% | -15.5% | -21.6% | -27.8% | -34.1% | -39.8% | -46.0% | -52.1% | -58.3% | -64.4% | -70.6% | -76.9% | 185% |
| Feb '26 | -23.5% | +26.2% | +19.6% | +13.3% | +6.8% | +0.4% | -6.1% | -12.6% | -19.0% | -25.5% | -31.8% | -38.4% | -44.9% | -50.8% | -57.4% | -63.7% | -70.2% | -76.6% | -83.1% | -89.6% | 101% | |
| Mar '26 | -27.3% | +17.9% | +13.1% | +8.1% | +3.2% | -1.8% | -6.8% | -11.6% | -16.6% | -21.5% | -26.5% | -31.5% | -36.0% | -41.1% | -45.9% | -50.9% | -55.8% | -60.8% | -65.8% | 91% | ||
| Apr '26 | -14.3% | +11.2% | +6.9% | +2.7% | -1.6% | -5.8% | -10.0% | -14.3% | -18.4% | -22.7% | -27.0% | -30.9% | -35.2% | -39.3% | -43.6% | -47.8% | -52.1% | -56.4% | 56% | |||
| May '26 | +16.8% | +0.7% | -4.4% | -9.6% | -14.9% | -20.0% | -25.3% | -30.4% | -35.6% | -40.9% | -45.7% | -50.9% | -56.0% | -61.3% | -66.4% | -71.7% | -76.9% | 94% | ||||
| Jun '26 | +6.4% | -9.6% | -16.4% | -23.1% | -29.7% | -36.5% | -43.0% | -49.8% | -56.5% | -62.7% | -69.4% | -76.0% | -82.7% | -89.3% | -96.1% | -102.8% | 157% | |||||
| Jul '26 | -13.7% | -17.5% | -24.7% | -31.7% | -38.8% | -45.8% | -53.0% | -60.2% | -66.7% | -73.8% | -80.8% | -88.0% | -94.9% | -102.1% | -109.3% | 311% | ||||||
| Aug '26 | -4.3% | -23.2% | -30.3% | -37.6% | -44.7% | -52.0% | -59.3% | -65.9% | -73.3% | -80.3% | -87.6% | -94.7% | -102.0% | -109.4% | ||||||||
| Sep '26 | -23.2% | -30.3% | -37.6% | -44.7% | -52.0% | -59.3% | -65.9% | -73.3% | -80.3% | -87.6% | -94.7% | -102.0% | -109.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.