US 10-Year Treasury Yield
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
Key Insight
The 10-year yield has settled near 4.2% in April 2026 — roughly 70 bps below its late-2023 peak but still a full 200 bps above the 2010s average — suggesting the market has accepted higher-for-longer as the new regime rather than a transitory spike.
4.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 203 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.2%, 19 bps below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 51 bps due to an easy comparison base from Jul 1.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.5% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 281% |
| Jan '26 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 316% | |
| Feb '26 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 399% | ||
| Mar '26 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 342% | |||
| Apr '26 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 359% | ||||
| May '26 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 211% | |||||
| Jun '26 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 211% | ||||||
| Jul '26 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | ||||||||
| Aug '26 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | -0.4% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | 281% |
| Jan '26 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 316% | |
| Feb '26 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | 399% | ||
| Mar '26 | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 342% | |||
| Apr '26 | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 359% | ||||
| May '26 | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 211% | |||||
| Jun '26 | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | 211% | ||||||
| Jul '26 | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | ||||||||
| Aug '26 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.