Cameco (Uranium)

World's largest public uranium producer — rising price signals nuclear renaissance as baseload supply response.

Exclude COVID

$101.0

Trend YoY growth is +77.3%, accelerating by 9.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +51.8%, 25.6 pp below trend, a 0.54σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 43.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun 12.

Level

YoY %

y = −4.0% + 9.0 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Forecast

Projected value by forecast vintage (USD)

Projected value (USD)

Forecast made inNov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26Dec '26Jan '27Feb '27Mar '27Apr '27May '27Jun '27Jul '27MAPE
Nov '25$88.3$95.2$94.7$87.0$83.7$94.6$126.1$164.6$170.6$181.0$201.3$251.5$223.3$236.8$327.0$321.1$300.7$348.3$325.8$298.1$514.147%
Dec '25$91.5$82.6$72.7$67.2$72.8$93.2$116.7$116.4$118.6$126.8$152.6$130.4$133.2$177.2$167.6$151.8$169.5$153.0$135.0$153.448%
Jan '26$123.4$84.2$79.6$88.4$116.1$149.0$152.3$159.2$174.6$215.3$188.6$197.6$269.6$261.6$242.5$277.8$257.1$232.9$354.947%
Feb '26$118.4$94.9$109.8$149.5$198.9$209.9$226.6$256.1$324.5$292.1$313.7$438.7$435.9$412.2$482.4$455.6$420.9$900.882%
Mar '26$108.6$121.9$170.5$232.5$250.6$275.9$317.3$408.5$373.1$405.9$574.6$577.4$551.2$651.5$620.8$578.3$1.5k140%
Apr '26$123.0$175.5$241.7$262.6$291.0$336.9$436.0$400.3$437.4$621.6$626.9$600.3$711.7$680.0$635.1$1.7k226%
May '26$112.7$202.6$214.3$231.9$262.7$333.6$300.9$323.7$453.4$451.1$427.2$500.7$473.5$437.9$957.9235%
Jun '26$101.0$180.6$188.3$205.8$253.0$221.1$230.9$314.1$304.0$281.0$321.1$296.5$267.8$482.9
Jul '26$180.6$188.3$205.8$253.0$221.1$230.9$314.1$304.0$281.0$321.1$296.5$267.8$482.9

YoY change forecast

Forecast made inNov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26Dec '26Jan '27Feb '27Mar '27Apr '27May '27Jun '27Jul '27MAPE
Nov '25+48.9%+85.6%+91.8%+98.0%+103.7%+109.9%+115.9%+122.1%+128.1%+134.3%+140.6%+146.6%+152.8%+158.8%+165.0%+171.2%+176.9%+183.1%+189.1%+195.3%+201.3%47%
Dec '25+75.7%+67.4%+65.4%+63.5%+61.5%+59.6%+57.6%+55.6%+53.6%+51.6%+49.6%+47.6%+45.6%+43.6%+41.6%+39.8%+37.7%+35.8%+33.8%+31.8%48%
Jan '26+150.1%+91.5%+93.7%+96.2%+98.7%+101.2%+103.6%+106.1%+108.6%+111.0%+113.5%+116.0%+118.5%+121.0%+123.2%+125.7%+128.2%+130.7%+133.1%47%
Feb '26+169.4%+131.1%+143.7%+155.9%+168.5%+180.7%+193.3%+205.9%+218.1%+230.7%+242.9%+255.5%+268.1%+279.5%+292.1%+304.3%+316.9%+329.1%82%
Mar '26+160.3%+170.6%+191.9%+213.9%+235.1%+257.1%+279.1%+300.4%+322.4%+343.7%+365.7%+387.7%+407.5%+429.5%+450.8%+472.8%+494.1%140%
Apr '26+170.9%+200.5%+226.2%+251.1%+276.8%+302.5%+327.4%+353.1%+378.0%+403.8%+429.5%+452.7%+478.4%+503.3%+529.1%+554.0%226%
May '26+92.9%+173.4%+186.6%+200.2%+213.8%+227.0%+240.6%+253.8%+267.4%+281.0%+293.3%+307.0%+320.1%+333.8%+346.9%235%
Jun '26+51.8%+141.5%+143.7%+145.9%+148.0%+150.2%+152.4%+154.6%+156.8%+158.7%+160.9%+163.1%+165.2%+167.4%
Jul '26+141.5%+143.7%+145.9%+148.0%+150.2%+152.4%+154.6%+156.8%+158.7%+160.9%+163.1%+165.2%+167.4%

Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 6M window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.

Cameco (Uranium) | Blake Cutler