U.S. Trade Balance: Goods
Monthly goods trade deficit — widening deficits signal import dependence; narrowing may reflect reshoring or trade barriers.
$-55.9B
Trend YoY growth is -4.3%, accelerating by 0.1 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +7.4%, 11.7 pp above trend, a 0.33σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 19.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr 1. At current levels, YoY would rise to +25.6% by Jul '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = −7.2% + 0.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($M)
Projected value ($M)
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $-59.4B | $-91.0B | $-101.3B | $-129.4B | $-175.2B | $-172.5B | $-204.2B | $-96.8B | $-111.5B | $-102.1B | $-135.5B | $-111.8B | $-115.4B | $-75.1B | $-132.7B | $-163.1B | $-119.9B | $-125.4B | $-132.6B | $-134.8B | $-276.4B | 131% |
| Oct '25 | $-37.4B | $-112.9B | $-145.4B | $-198.4B | $-196.7B | $-234.2B | $-111.6B | $-129.3B | $-118.9B | $-158.6B | $-131.3B | $-136.1B | $-88.9B | $-157.5B | $-194.2B | $-143.2B | $-150.2B | $-159.1B | $-162.1B | $-386.2B | 226% | |
| Nov '25 | $-63.9B | $-149.1B | $-204.9B | $-204.5B | $-244.7B | $-117.3B | $-136.4B | $-126.0B | $-168.6B | $-140.2B | $-145.7B | $-95.4B | $-169.7B | $-209.7B | $-155.0B | $-162.9B | $-173.0B | $-176.6B | $-444.6B | 286% | ||
| Dec '25 | $-76.1B | $-205.3B | $-206.0B | $-247.6B | $-119.2B | $-139.1B | $-129.0B | $-173.2B | $-144.4B | $-150.5B | $-98.8B | $-176.1B | $-218.1B | $-161.5B | $-170.1B | $-180.8B | $-184.9B | $-475.7B | 332% | |||
| Jan '26 | $-54.2B | $-208.0B | $-250.7B | $-120.9B | $-141.5B | $-131.4B | $-176.7B | $-147.5B | $-154.0B | $-101.2B | $-180.6B | $-223.9B | $-165.9B | $-174.9B | $-186.1B | $-190.5B | $-498.5B | 453% | ||||
| Feb '26 | $-55.0B | $-235.5B | $-113.1B | $-131.7B | $-121.9B | $-163.4B | $-135.9B | $-141.5B | $-92.8B | $-165.1B | $-204.3B | $-151.1B | $-158.9B | $-168.9B | $-172.5B | $-419.8B | 558% | |||||
| Mar '26 | $-56.6B | $-105.9B | $-122.6B | $-112.7B | $-150.3B | $-124.5B | $-128.9B | $-84.2B | $-149.3B | $-184.0B | $-135.6B | $-142.3B | $-150.7B | $-153.6B | $-346.8B | 922% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | $-55.9B | $-98.2B | $-88.0B | $-114.7B | $-92.9B | $-94.2B | $-60.4B | $-105.0B | $-127.3B | $-92.2B | $-95.2B | $-99.5B | $-99.9B | $-178.2B | ||||||||
| May '26 | $-98.2B | $-88.0B | $-114.7B | $-92.9B | $-94.2B | $-60.4B | $-105.0B | $-127.3B | $-92.2B | $-95.2B | $-99.5B | $-99.9B | $-178.2B |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | +28.7% | +20.1% | +27.0% | +33.6% | +40.5% | +47.4% | +53.6% | +60.4% | +67.1% | +73.9% | +80.6% | +87.4% | +94.3% | +100.9% | +107.8% | +114.4% | +121.3% | +128.2% | +134.4% | +141.2% | +147.9% | 131% |
| Oct '25 | +50.7% | +41.5% | +50.2% | +59.1% | +68.0% | +76.1% | +85.0% | +93.7% | +102.6% | +111.2% | +120.2% | +129.1% | +137.7% | +146.6% | +155.3% | +164.2% | +173.1% | +181.2% | +190.1% | +198.8% | 226% | |
| Nov '25 | +19.9% | +54.0% | +64.3% | +74.7% | +84.0% | +94.3% | +104.3% | +114.7% | +124.7% | +135.0% | +145.3% | +155.3% | +165.7% | +175.7% | +186.0% | +196.3% | +205.7% | +216.0% | +226.0% | 286% | ||
| Dec '25 | +21.4% | +64.6% | +75.9% | +86.2% | +97.5% | +108.5% | +119.8% | +130.8% | +142.1% | +153.4% | +164.4% | +175.7% | +186.7% | +198.0% | +209.4% | +219.6% | +230.9% | +241.9% | 332% | |||
| Jan '26 | +56.5% | +77.7% | +88.5% | +100.4% | +112.0% | +123.9% | +135.4% | +147.3% | +159.3% | +170.8% | +182.7% | +194.3% | +206.2% | +218.1% | +228.9% | +240.8% | +252.4% | 453% | ||||
| Feb '26 | +53.0% | +77.1% | +87.4% | +97.4% | +107.7% | +117.6% | +127.9% | +138.2% | +148.2% | +158.5% | +168.5% | +178.8% | +189.1% | +198.4% | +208.7% | +218.7% | 558% | |||||
| Mar '26 | +57.5% | +75.5% | +83.6% | +92.1% | +100.2% | +108.7% | +117.1% | +125.3% | +133.7% | +141.9% | +150.3% | +158.7% | +166.4% | +174.8% | +183.0% | 922% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | +7.4% | +47.1% | +50.0% | +52.8% | +55.8% | +58.7% | +61.5% | +64.4% | +67.3% | +70.2% | +73.1% | +75.8% | +78.7% | +81.5% | ||||||||
| May '26 | +47.1% | +50.0% | +52.8% | +55.8% | +58.7% | +61.5% | +64.4% | +67.3% | +70.2% | +73.1% | +75.8% | +78.7% | +81.5% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.