U.S. Trade Balance: Goods
Monthly goods trade deficit — widening deficits signal import dependence; narrowing may reflect reshoring or trade barriers.
$-88.6B
Trend YoY growth is -4.7%, accelerating by 9 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -18.0%, 13.3 pp below trend, a 0.39σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 7.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul 1. At current levels, YoY would fall to -137.0% by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = −7.0% + 9 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($M)
Projected value ($M)
| Forecast made in | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | $-76.1B | $-205.3B | $-206.0B | $-247.6B | $-119.2B | $-139.1B | $-129.0B | $-173.2B | $-144.4B | $-150.5B | $-98.8B | $-176.1B | $-218.1B | $-157.0B | $-162.4B | $-171.5B | $-175.0B | $-259.0B | $-251.4B | $-322.6B | $-542.2B | 454% |
| Jan '26 | $-52.7B | $-208.5B | $-251.2B | $-121.2B | $-141.8B | $-131.7B | $-177.1B | $-147.9B | $-154.4B | $-101.5B | $-181.1B | $-224.5B | $-161.7B | $-167.5B | $-177.0B | $-180.7B | $-267.7B | $-260.0B | $-333.8B | $-575.1B | 547% | |
| Feb '26 | $-52.5B | $-236.8B | $-113.7B | $-132.5B | $-122.6B | $-164.4B | $-136.8B | $-142.4B | $-93.4B | $-166.3B | $-205.7B | $-147.9B | $-152.9B | $-161.3B | $-164.5B | $-243.2B | $-236.0B | $-302.6B | $-481.6B | 570% | ||
| Mar '26 | $-53.7B | $-106.8B | $-123.7B | $-113.8B | $-151.8B | $-125.7B | $-130.3B | $-85.1B | $-150.9B | $-186.1B | $-133.4B | $-137.5B | $-144.7B | $-147.1B | $-217.0B | $-210.1B | $-268.8B | $-392.3B | 616% | |||
| Apr '26 | $-52.9B | $-100.0B | $-89.9B | $-117.3B | $-95.1B | $-96.6B | $-62.0B | $-107.9B | $-131.0B | $-92.4B | $-93.8B | $-97.4B | $-97.7B | $-142.3B | $-136.0B | $-172.0B | $-187.7B | 411% | ||||
| May '26 | $-75.8B | $-79.2B | $-102.2B | $-82.0B | $-82.5B | $-52.4B | $-90.4B | $-108.6B | $-75.9B | $-76.4B | $-78.7B | $-78.3B | $-113.1B | $-107.2B | $-134.6B | $-125.7B | 283% | |||||
| Jun '26 | $-71.2B | $-87.4B | $-68.9B | $-67.9B | $-42.4B | $-71.7B | $-84.7B | $-58.1B | $-57.3B | $-58.1B | $-56.7B | $-80.5B | $-74.9B | $-92.3B | $-71.0B | 192% | ||||||
| Jul '26 | $-88.6B | $-61.1B | $-59.3B | $-36.3B | $-60.4B | $-70.0B | $-47.0B | $-45.5B | $-45.2B | $-43.1B | $-59.8B | $-54.3B | $-65.2B | $-43.4B | ||||||||
| Aug '26 | $-61.1B | $-59.3B | $-36.3B | $-60.4B | $-70.0B | $-47.0B | $-45.5B | $-45.2B | $-43.1B | $-59.8B | $-54.3B | $-65.2B | $-43.4B |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | +21.4% | +64.6% | +75.9% | +86.2% | +97.5% | +108.5% | +119.8% | +130.8% | +142.1% | +153.4% | +164.4% | +175.7% | +186.7% | +198.0% | +209.4% | +219.6% | +230.9% | +241.9% | +253.2% | +264.2% | +275.5% | 454% |
| Jan '26 | +57.8% | +78.1% | +88.9% | +100.9% | +112.4% | +124.4% | +136.0% | +148.0% | +159.9% | +171.5% | +183.5% | +195.1% | +207.0% | +219.0% | +229.8% | +241.8% | +253.4% | +265.3% | +276.9% | +288.9% | 547% | |
| Feb '26 | +55.1% | +78.0% | +88.5% | +98.5% | +108.9% | +119.0% | +129.4% | +139.8% | +149.9% | +160.3% | +170.4% | +180.8% | +191.2% | +200.6% | +211.0% | +221.1% | +231.5% | +241.6% | +252.0% | 570% | ||
| Mar '26 | +59.6% | +77.0% | +85.3% | +93.9% | +102.2% | +110.8% | +119.4% | +127.7% | +136.3% | +144.6% | +153.2% | +161.8% | +169.6% | +178.2% | +186.5% | +195.1% | +203.4% | +212.0% | 616% | |||
| Apr '26 | +12.4% | +49.9% | +53.1% | +56.2% | +59.5% | +62.7% | +65.8% | +69.0% | +72.1% | +75.4% | +78.6% | +81.5% | +84.7% | +87.8% | +91.0% | +94.2% | +97.4% | 411% | ||||
| May '26 | -13.5% | +34.9% | +36.2% | +37.5% | +38.8% | +40.1% | +41.5% | +42.8% | +44.1% | +45.5% | +46.7% | +48.0% | +49.3% | +50.7% | +51.9% | +53.3% | 283% | |||||
| Jun '26 | -21.3% | +16.5% | +15.4% | +14.4% | +13.4% | +12.3% | +11.3% | +10.3% | +9.2% | +8.3% | +7.2% | +6.2% | +5.2% | +4.2% | +3.1% | 192% | ||||||
| Jul '26 | -18.0% | +2.5% | -0.2% | -2.8% | -5.5% | -8.0% | -10.7% | -13.4% | -15.8% | -18.5% | -21.1% | -23.8% | -26.4% | -29.0% | ||||||||
| Aug '26 | +2.5% | -0.2% | -2.8% | -5.5% | -8.0% | -10.7% | -13.4% | -15.8% | -18.5% | -21.1% | -23.8% | -26.4% | -29.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.