Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
5.2%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 32 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.2%, 80 bps above trend, a 2.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.4%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: -0.1%, 6 bps above trend, a 0.60σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 64 bps due to an tough comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
102.1Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 38 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.4%, 3.0 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.3% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
3.1%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 28.8 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: -0.1%, 9 bps below trend, a 0.38σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.6% + 29 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$62.9
Trend YoY growth is +18.6%, accelerating by 1.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +8.6%, 10.0 pp below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 8.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.7% + 1.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$69.1
Trend YoY growth is +15.6%, accelerating by 1.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +11.5%, 4.1 pp below trend, a 0.62σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.5% + 1.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
2.2%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 56 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -1.8%, 1.8 pp below trend, a 0.25σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
7.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
12.2kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +49.4%, accelerating by 3.6 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 184 consecutive periods. Latest: +85.8%, 36.4 pp above trend, a 1.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 22.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 16.9% + 3.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.8
Trend YoY growth is +17.8%, accelerating by 1.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 54 consecutive periods. Latest: +36.2%, 18.4 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 63 bps due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.4% + 1.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 59 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.2%, 4 bps above trend, a 0.04σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.2k
Trend YoY growth is +34.8%, accelerating by 4.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 35 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.7%, 35.5 pp below trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 24.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.7% + 4.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$20.0
Trend YoY growth is +16.8%, accelerating by 1.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 158 consecutive periods. Latest: +57.6%, 40.8 pp above trend, a 4.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 4.3% + 1.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$96.2
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 24 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 61 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.5x, 46.9 pp above trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 26.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 13.1% − 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.8kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.6%, accelerating by 80 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +17.5%, 9 bps below trend, a 0.02σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.4% + 80 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.9kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.6%, accelerating by 79 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +17.2%, 42 bps below trend, a 0.12σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.5% + 79 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
Financial markets are pricing in a dramatically stronger recovery than the real economy is delivering, creating an unusually wide credibility gap between asset prices and fundamentals.
Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
5.2%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 32 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.2%, 80 bps above trend, a 2.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.4%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: -0.1%, 6 bps above trend, a 0.60σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 64 bps due to an tough comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
102.1Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 38 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.4%, 3.0 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.3% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
3.1%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 28.8 pp/year over the last 2Y. Latest: -0.1%, 9 bps below trend, a 0.38σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.6% + 29 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$62.9
Trend YoY growth is +18.6%, accelerating by 1.8 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +8.6%, 10.0 pp below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 8.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.7% + 1.8 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$69.1
Trend YoY growth is +15.6%, accelerating by 1.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +11.5%, 4.1 pp below trend, a 0.62σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.5% + 1.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
2.2%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 56 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -1.8%, 1.8 pp below trend, a 0.25σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
7.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
12.2kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +49.4%, accelerating by 3.6 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 184 consecutive periods. Latest: +85.8%, 36.4 pp above trend, a 1.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 22.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 16.9% + 3.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.8
Trend YoY growth is +17.8%, accelerating by 1.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 54 consecutive periods. Latest: +36.2%, 18.4 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 63 bps due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.4% + 1.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 59 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.2%, 4 bps above trend, a 0.04σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.2k
Trend YoY growth is +34.8%, accelerating by 4.0 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 35 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.7%, 35.5 pp below trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 24.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.7% + 4.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$20.0
Trend YoY growth is +16.8%, accelerating by 1.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 158 consecutive periods. Latest: +57.6%, 40.8 pp above trend, a 4.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 4.3% + 1.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$96.2
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 24 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 61 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.5x, 46.9 pp above trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 26.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 13.1% − 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.8kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.6%, accelerating by 80 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +17.5%, 9 bps below trend, a 0.02σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.4% + 80 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.9kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.6%, accelerating by 79 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +17.2%, 42 bps below trend, a 0.12σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.5% + 79 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend