Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation. Most recent data from today.
Key Insight
Financial markets are pricing in a dramatically stronger recovery than the real economy is delivering, creating an unusually wide credibility gap between asset prices and fundamentals.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 142 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 46 bps below trend, a 2.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 59 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.5%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 640 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.0%, 20 bps above trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 98 bps due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
98.29Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 267 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.1%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.9%
Trend YoY growth is -0.3%, slowing by 1.3 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -1.3%, 1.0 pp below trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$63.0
Trend YoY growth is +13.9%, accelerating by 54 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +34.4%, 20.5 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 52 bps due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.0% + 54 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$68.7
Trend YoY growth is +10.0%, slowing by 6 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 54 consecutive periods. Latest: +37.1%, 27.1 pp above trend, a 2.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.5% − 6 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
0.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 45 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -1.4%, 1.4 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
28.0%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
9.3kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +27.2%, slowing by 40 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 127 consecutive periods. Latest: +142.9%, 115.7 pp above trend, a 3.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 43.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 30.8% − 40 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.1
Trend YoY growth is +11.2%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +28.4%, 17.2 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.4% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.0%, 10 bps below trend, a 0.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.8k
Trend YoY growth is +34.5%, accelerating by 4.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 257 consecutive periods. Latest: +45.5%, 10.9 pp above trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 10.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.6% + 4.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$17.4
Trend YoY growth is +10.4%, accelerating by 48 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 39 consecutive periods. Latest: +40.4%, 29.9 pp above trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 15.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 6.1% + 48 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$100.7
Trend YoY growth is +4.3%, slowing by 43 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 29 consecutive periods. Latest: +62.5%, 58.2 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 32.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.2% − 43 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Explore
Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation. Most recent data from today.
Key Insight
Financial markets are pricing in a dramatically stronger recovery than the real economy is delivering, creating an unusually wide credibility gap between asset prices and fundamentals.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 142 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 46 bps below trend, a 2.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 59 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.5%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 640 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.0%, 20 bps above trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 98 bps due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
98.29Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 267 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.1%, 1.2 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.9%
Trend YoY growth is -0.3%, slowing by 1.3 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -1.3%, 1.0 pp below trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$63.0
Trend YoY growth is +13.9%, accelerating by 54 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +34.4%, 20.5 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 52 bps due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.0% + 54 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$68.7
Trend YoY growth is +10.0%, slowing by 6 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 54 consecutive periods. Latest: +37.1%, 27.1 pp above trend, a 2.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.5% − 6 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
0.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 45 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -1.4%, 1.4 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
28.0%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
9.3kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +27.2%, slowing by 40 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 127 consecutive periods. Latest: +142.9%, 115.7 pp above trend, a 3.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 43.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 30.8% − 40 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.1
Trend YoY growth is +11.2%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +28.4%, 17.2 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.4% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.0%, 10 bps below trend, a 0.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.8k
Trend YoY growth is +34.5%, accelerating by 4.3 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 257 consecutive periods. Latest: +45.5%, 10.9 pp above trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 10.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.6% + 4.3 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$17.4
Trend YoY growth is +10.4%, accelerating by 48 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 39 consecutive periods. Latest: +40.4%, 29.9 pp above trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 15.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 6.1% + 48 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$100.7
Trend YoY growth is +4.3%, slowing by 43 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 29 consecutive periods. Latest: +62.5%, 58.2 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 32.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.2% − 43 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend