Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
4.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 203 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.2%, 19 bps below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 51 bps due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.3%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: -0.1%, 7 bps above trend, a 0.45σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
101.0Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 22 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.6%, 3.3 pp above trend, a 0.96σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.1% + 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.8%
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, accelerating by 35.3 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 69 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.13σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.7% + 35 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$68.6
Trend YoY growth is +16.2%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 30 consecutive periods. Latest: +19.5%, 3.2 pp above trend, a 0.49σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 14.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 6.1% + 1.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$75.0
Trend YoY growth is +12.8%, accelerating by 63 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 70 consecutive periods. Latest: +21.5%, 8.7 pp above trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 19.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.2% + 63 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
2.1%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +2.7%, 2.6 pp above trend, a 0.34σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
9.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
12.6kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +39.8%, accelerating by 1.9 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 134 consecutive periods. Latest: +123.6%, 83.8 pp above trend, a 2.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 38.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 22.6% + 1.9 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.2
Trend YoY growth is +13.4%, accelerating by 42 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 64 consecutive periods. Latest: +25.0%, 11.5 pp above trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.6% + 42 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.4%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 67 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.6%, 50 bps above trend, a 0.44σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.2k
Trend YoY growth is +35.5%, accelerating by 4.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: +25.6%, 9.9 pp below trend, a 0.62σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 8.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.0% + 4.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$15.9
Trend YoY growth is +13.1%, accelerating by 85 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 89 consecutive periods. Latest: +23.8%, 10.7 pp above trend, a 0.85σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.4% + 85 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$71.9
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 34 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: 1.1x, 2.7 pp above trend, a 0.10σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.5% − 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.5kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.0%, accelerating by 70 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 63 consecutive periods. Latest: +19.2%, 2.2 pp above trend, a 0.42σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.7% + 70 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.5kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.1%, accelerating by 70 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 64 consecutive periods. Latest: +20.2%, 3.1 pp above trend, a 0.62σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.8% + 70 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
Financial markets are pricing in a dramatically stronger recovery than the real economy is delivering, creating an unusually wide credibility gap between asset prices and fundamentals.
Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
4.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 203 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.2%, 19 bps below trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 51 bps due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.3%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: -0.1%, 7 bps above trend, a 0.45σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
101.0Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 22 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.6%, 3.3 pp above trend, a 0.96σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.1% + 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.8%
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, accelerating by 35.3 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 69 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.13σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.7% + 35 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$68.6
Trend YoY growth is +16.2%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 30 consecutive periods. Latest: +19.5%, 3.2 pp above trend, a 0.49σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 14.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 6.1% + 1.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$75.0
Trend YoY growth is +12.8%, accelerating by 63 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 70 consecutive periods. Latest: +21.5%, 8.7 pp above trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 19.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.2% + 63 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
2.1%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +2.7%, 2.6 pp above trend, a 0.34σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
9.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
12.6kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +39.8%, accelerating by 1.9 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 134 consecutive periods. Latest: +123.6%, 83.8 pp above trend, a 2.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 38.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 22.6% + 1.9 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.2
Trend YoY growth is +13.4%, accelerating by 42 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 64 consecutive periods. Latest: +25.0%, 11.5 pp above trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.6% + 42 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.4%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 67 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.6%, 50 bps above trend, a 0.44σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.2k
Trend YoY growth is +35.5%, accelerating by 4.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: +25.6%, 9.9 pp below trend, a 0.62σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 8.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.0% + 4.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$15.9
Trend YoY growth is +13.1%, accelerating by 85 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 89 consecutive periods. Latest: +23.8%, 10.7 pp above trend, a 0.85σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.4% + 85 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$71.9
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 34 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: 1.1x, 2.7 pp above trend, a 0.10σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 27.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.5% − 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.5kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.0%, accelerating by 70 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 63 consecutive periods. Latest: +19.2%, 2.2 pp above trend, a 0.42σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.7% + 70 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.5kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.1%, accelerating by 70 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 64 consecutive periods. Latest: +20.2%, 3.1 pp above trend, a 0.62σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.8% + 70 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend