Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
4.6%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 177 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.1%, 32 bps below trend, a 2.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.5%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 681 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.0%, 17 bps above trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
99.15Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.2%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -0.4%, 53 bps below trend, a 0.18σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.3% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.7%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 48.2 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 45 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.7%, 75 bps below trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 67 bps due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.9% + 48 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$64.2
Trend YoY growth is +15.1%, accelerating by 84 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +22.2%, 7.1 pp above trend, a 0.80σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 6.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.5% + 84 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$70.2
Trend YoY growth is +11.4%, accelerating by 29 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 60 consecutive periods. Latest: +24.7%, 13.3 pp above trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 11.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 8.8% + 29 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
2.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +2.6%, 2.5 pp above trend, a 0.33σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to -2.4% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
21.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
12.9kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +33.4%, accelerating by 74 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 110 consecutive periods. Latest: +164.9%, 131.5 pp above trend, a 3.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 41.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 26.7% + 74 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.4
Trend YoY growth is +12.3%, accelerating by 18 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +36.4%, 24.1 pp above trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 15.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.6% + 18 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.2%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 57 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.5%, 42 bps above trend, a 0.36σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 55 bps due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.5k
Trend YoY growth is +35.4%, accelerating by 4.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +36.8%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.10σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 9.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.5% + 4.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$17.9
Trend YoY growth is +12.3%, accelerating by 77 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 64 consecutive periods. Latest: +45.8%, 33.5 pp above trend, a 2.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 19.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.3% + 77 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$112.3
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 38 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 54 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.8x, 70.3 pp above trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 26.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.7% − 38 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.5kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +16.5%, accelerating by 61 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.0%, 10.5 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.0% + 61 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.5kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +16.6%, accelerating by 60 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.2%, 10.6 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.1% + 60 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
Financial markets are pricing in a dramatically stronger recovery than the real economy is delivering, creating an unusually wide credibility gap between asset prices and fundamentals.
Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
4.6%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 177 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.1%, 32 bps below trend, a 2.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.5%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 681 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.0%, 17 bps above trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
99.15Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.2%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: -0.4%, 53 bps below trend, a 0.18σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.3% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.7%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 48.2 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 45 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.7%, 75 bps below trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 67 bps due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.9% + 48 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$64.2
Trend YoY growth is +15.1%, accelerating by 84 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +22.2%, 7.1 pp above trend, a 0.80σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 6.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.5% + 84 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$70.2
Trend YoY growth is +11.4%, accelerating by 29 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 60 consecutive periods. Latest: +24.7%, 13.3 pp above trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 11.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 8.8% + 29 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
2.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +2.6%, 2.5 pp above trend, a 0.33σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to -2.4% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
21.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
12.9kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +33.4%, accelerating by 74 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 110 consecutive periods. Latest: +164.9%, 131.5 pp above trend, a 3.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 41.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 26.7% + 74 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.4
Trend YoY growth is +12.3%, accelerating by 18 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +36.4%, 24.1 pp above trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 15.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.6% + 18 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.2%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 57 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.5%, 42 bps above trend, a 0.36σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 55 bps due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.5k
Trend YoY growth is +35.4%, accelerating by 4.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +36.8%, 1.4 pp above trend, a 0.10σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 9.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.5% + 4.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$17.9
Trend YoY growth is +12.3%, accelerating by 77 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 64 consecutive periods. Latest: +45.8%, 33.5 pp above trend, a 2.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 19.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.3% + 77 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$112.3
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 38 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 54 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.8x, 70.3 pp above trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 26.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.7% − 38 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.5kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +16.5%, accelerating by 61 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.0%, 10.5 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.0% + 61 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.5kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +16.6%, accelerating by 60 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.2%, 10.6 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.1% + 60 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend