Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
4.8%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.4 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.5%, 14 bps above trend, a 0.74σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.4%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: -0.2%, 2 bps below trend, a 0.21σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 83 bps due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
98.85Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +0.5%, 16 bps above trend, a 0.07σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.2% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.7%
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, accelerating by 31.1 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.2%, 22 bps below trend, a 0.99σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.6% + 31 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$69.2
Trend YoY growth is +18.1%, accelerating by 1.6 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +14.9%, 3.2 pp below trend, a 0.55σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.6% + 1.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$75.0
Trend YoY growth is +15.0%, accelerating by 1.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +16.1%, 1.1 pp above trend, a 0.17σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.9 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 4.5% + 1.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
1.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 52 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -2.3%, 2.3 pp below trend, a 0.32σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would rise to +1.0% by Sep '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
7.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
11.3kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +46.2%, accelerating by 3.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 166 consecutive periods. Latest: +99.7%, 53.4 pp above trend, a 2.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 25.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 18.7% + 3.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.7
Trend YoY growth is +15.9%, accelerating by 95 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 26 consecutive periods. Latest: +48.7%, 32.8 pp above trend, a 2.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.3% + 95 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 74 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.5%, 34 bps above trend, a 0.31σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.5k
Trend YoY growth is +35.4%, accelerating by 4.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +26.9%, 8.6 pp below trend, a 0.78σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 12.9 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −2.7% + 4.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$19.1
Trend YoY growth is +15.0%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 131 consecutive periods. Latest: +49.8%, 34.8 pp above trend, a 4.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.0% + 1.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$91.5
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 32 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.4x, 32.6 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.2% − 32 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.7kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.4%, accelerating by 77 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 25 consecutive periods. Latest: +19.2%, 1.7 pp above trend, a 0.49σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.5% + 77 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.8kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.5%, accelerating by 76 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 25 consecutive periods. Latest: +19.2%, 1.7 pp above trend, a 0.49σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.6% + 76 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
Financial markets are pricing in a dramatically stronger recovery than the real economy is delivering, creating an unusually wide credibility gap between asset prices and fundamentals.
Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
4.8%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.4 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.5%, 14 bps above trend, a 0.74σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Shows whether monetary policy is restrictive relative to the economy.
0.4%
Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.7 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: -0.2%, 2 bps below trend, a 0.21σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 83 bps due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.2% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
98.85Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +0.5%, 16 bps above trend, a 0.07σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.2% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.7%
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, accelerating by 31.1 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.2%, 22 bps below trend, a 0.99σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.6% + 31 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$69.2
Trend YoY growth is +18.1%, accelerating by 1.6 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +14.9%, 3.2 pp below trend, a 0.55σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.7 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.6% + 1.6 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$75.0
Trend YoY growth is +15.0%, accelerating by 1.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +16.1%, 1.1 pp above trend, a 0.17σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.9 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 4.5% + 1.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
1.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 52 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -2.3%, 2.3 pp below trend, a 0.32σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would rise to +1.0% by Sep '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
7.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
11.3kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +46.2%, accelerating by 3.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 166 consecutive periods. Latest: +99.7%, 53.4 pp above trend, a 2.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 25.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 18.7% + 3.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.7
Trend YoY growth is +15.9%, accelerating by 95 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 26 consecutive periods. Latest: +48.7%, 32.8 pp above trend, a 2.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 7.3% + 95 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 74 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.5%, 34 bps above trend, a 0.31σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.5k
Trend YoY growth is +35.4%, accelerating by 4.2 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +26.9%, 8.6 pp below trend, a 0.78σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 12.9 pp due to an tough comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −2.7% + 4.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$19.1
Trend YoY growth is +15.0%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 131 consecutive periods. Latest: +49.8%, 34.8 pp above trend, a 4.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.0% + 1.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$91.5
Trend YoY growth is 1.1x, slowing by 32 bps/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 37 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.4x, 32.6 pp above trend, a 1.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.2% − 32 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.7kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.4%, accelerating by 77 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 25 consecutive periods. Latest: +19.2%, 1.7 pp above trend, a 0.49σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.5% + 77 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.8kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +17.5%, accelerating by 76 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 25 consecutive periods. Latest: +19.2%, 1.7 pp above trend, a 0.49σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.6% + 76 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend