Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
No data
No data
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
97.78Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 281 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.8%, 2.0 pp below trend, a 0.63σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.4% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.8%
Trend YoY growth is +0.2%, accelerating by 58.8 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 31 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.9%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 99 bps due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −1.0% + 59 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$64.7
Trend YoY growth is +14.5%, accelerating by 69 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 26 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.9%, 13.3 pp above trend, a 1.3σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 8.3% + 69 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$69.9
Trend YoY growth is +10.7%, accelerating by 11 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 46 consecutive periods. Latest: +29.3%, 18.5 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.7% + 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
No data
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
23.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
11.0kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +30.1%, accelerating by 11 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 111 consecutive periods. Latest: +154.7%, 124.6 pp above trend, a 3.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 39.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 29.0% + 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.2
Trend YoY growth is +11.6%, accelerating by 5 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 25 consecutive periods. Latest: +34.0%, 22.4 pp above trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.2% + 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
No data
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.7k
Trend YoY growth is +35.0%, accelerating by 4.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +38.9%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.27σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 16.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.6% + 4.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$18.0
Trend YoY growth is +11.4%, accelerating by 64 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 52 consecutive periods. Latest: +49.9%, 38.5 pp above trend, a 2.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 17.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.6% + 64 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$99.9
Trend YoY growth is 1.0x, slowing by 41 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 39 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.6x, 53.2 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 29.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.0% − 41 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.3kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +16.1%, accelerating by 54 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 23 consecutive periods. Latest: +29.5%, 13.3 pp above trend, a 1.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.3% + 54 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.3kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +16.2%, accelerating by 54 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: +29.3%, 13.1 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.4% + 54 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
Financial markets are pricing in a dramatically stronger recovery than the real economy is delivering, creating an unusually wide credibility gap between asset prices and fundamentals.
Financial Conditions
Performance of key market indicators across money, credit, growth, and inflation.
Updated today.
Money
No data
No data
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
97.78Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, slowing by 2 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 281 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.8%, 2.0 pp below trend, a 0.63σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.4% − 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Credit
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.8%
Trend YoY growth is +0.2%, accelerating by 58.8 pp/year over the last 2Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 31 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.9%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 99 bps due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −1.0% + 59 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$64.7
Trend YoY growth is +14.5%, accelerating by 69 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 26 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.9%, 13.3 pp above trend, a 1.3σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 8.3% + 69 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Regional banks are highly sensitive to deposit stress and commercial lending.
$69.9
Trend YoY growth is +10.7%, accelerating by 11 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 46 consecutive periods. Latest: +29.3%, 18.5 pp above trend, a 1.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.7% + 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Growth
No data
Prediction market probability of a US recession by end of 2026.
23.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.
11.0kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +30.1%, accelerating by 11 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 111 consecutive periods. Latest: +154.7%, 124.6 pp above trend, a 3.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 39.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 29.0% + 11 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$6.2
Trend YoY growth is +11.6%, accelerating by 5 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 25 consecutive periods. Latest: +34.0%, 22.4 pp above trend, a 2.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.2% + 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation
No data
Traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset; rises when real rates fall or uncertainty spikes.
$4.7k
Trend YoY growth is +35.0%, accelerating by 4.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Latest: +38.9%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.27σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 16.8 pp due to an tough comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.6% + 4.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$18.0
Trend YoY growth is +11.4%, accelerating by 64 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 52 consecutive periods. Latest: +49.9%, 38.5 pp above trend, a 2.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 17.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.6% + 64 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Energy prices propagate through inflation and geopolitics.
$99.9
Trend YoY growth is 1.0x, slowing by 41 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 39 consecutive periods. Latest: 1.6x, 53.2 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 29.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.0% − 41 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Equities
The benchmark US equity index — a forward-looking gauge of corporate earnings, growth expectations, and risk appetite.
7.3kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +16.1%, accelerating by 54 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 23 consecutive periods. Latest: +29.5%, 13.3 pp above trend, a 1.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.3% + 54 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.
7.3kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +16.2%, accelerating by 54 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: +29.3%, 13.1 pp above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.4% + 54 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend