US GDP Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
Key Insight
Annualized quarterly real GDP growth has settled into a +1.5% to +2.5% band for six consecutive quarters — a remarkably narrow range by historical standards, consistent with the soft-landing consensus but hiding the most unusual feature of this expansion.
1.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -2.3%, 233 bps below trend, a 0.32σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would rise to +1.0% by Sep '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 | Q3 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 '25 | 4.4 | 1.5 | -1.1 | 3.3 | 3.8 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 89% |
| Q4 '25 | 0.5 | -2.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -2.2 | -0.9 | -1.8 | -1.5 | 88% | |
| Q1 '26 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 91% | ||
| Q2 '26 | 1.5 | 3.8 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 3.0 | ||||
| Q3 '26 | 3.8 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 3.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 | Q3 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 '25 | +1.1% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | 89% |
| Q4 '25 | -1.4% | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.3% | -3.6% | 88% | |
| Q1 '26 | +2.7% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | 91% | ||
| Q2 '26 | -2.3% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | ||||
| Q3 '26 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 3Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.