S&P 500 E-mini Futures

Round-the-clock futures price for the S&P 500 — leads cash equities outside of regular trading hours.

Exclude COVID

7.4kIndex

Trend YoY growth is +17.0%, accelerating by 0.7 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 59 consecutive periods. Latest: +18.7%, 1.7 pp above trend, a 0.33σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 4.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jun 26.

Level

YoY %

y = 10.9% + 0.7 pp/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Forecast

Projected value by forecast vintage (Index)

Projected value (Index)

Forecast made inNov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26Dec '26Jan '27Feb '27Mar '27Apr '27May '27Jun '27Jul '27MAPE
Nov '256.9k6.9k7.1k7.0k6.7k6.6k7.1k7.5k7.7k7.8k8.2k8.4k8.4k8.5k8.6k8.6k8.2k9.1k9.6k9.3k9.7k17%
Dec '256.9k7.0k6.8k6.5k6.4k6.7k7.1k7.2k7.3k7.6k7.8k7.7k7.7k7.8k7.7k7.3k8.1k8.5k8.2k8.0k25%
Jan '267.0k6.8k6.4k6.3k6.7k7.0k7.1k7.2k7.4k7.6k7.5k7.5k7.5k7.4k7.1k7.7k8.1k7.8k7.5k34%
Feb '266.9k6.4k6.3k6.7k7.0k7.2k7.2k7.5k7.6k7.6k7.6k7.6k7.5k7.2k7.9k8.2k8.0k7.7k38%
Mar '266.6k6.5k6.9k7.3k7.4k7.6k7.9k8.0k8.0k8.1k8.2k8.1k7.8k8.6k9.0k8.8k8.8k34%
Apr '267.2k7.4k7.9k8.2k8.5k9.0k9.4k9.5k9.7k10.0k10.0k9.7k10.9k11.6k11.4k12.9k29%
May '267.6k8.1k8.4k8.7k9.3k9.7k9.9k10.2k10.5k10.6k10.3k11.6k12.4k12.2k14.2k55%
Jun '267.4k8.2k8.5k9.0k9.4k9.6k9.8k10.1k10.1k9.8k11.0k11.7k11.6k13.1k
Jul '268.2k8.5k9.0k9.4k9.6k9.8k10.1k10.1k9.8k11.0k11.7k11.6k13.1k

YoY change forecast

Forecast made inNov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26Dec '26Jan '27Feb '27Mar '27Apr '27May '27Jun '27Jul '27MAPE
Nov '25+13.3%+16.4%+17.0%+17.5%+18.1%+18.6%+19.2%+19.7%+20.3%+20.9%+21.4%+22.0%+22.5%+23.1%+23.7%+24.2%+24.7%+25.3%+25.9%+26.4%+27.0%17%
Dec '25+16.5%+14.6%+14.4%+14.2%+14.0%+13.8%+13.6%+13.4%+13.2%+13.0%+12.8%+12.6%+12.4%+12.2%+12.0%+11.8%+11.6%+11.4%+11.2%+11.0%25%
Jan '26+14.8%+14.0%+13.5%+13.0%+12.5%+11.9%+11.4%+10.9%+10.4%+9.9%+9.4%+8.8%+8.3%+7.8%+7.3%+6.8%+6.3%+5.8%+5.2%34%
Feb '26+15.5%+13.9%+13.5%+13.1%+12.6%+12.2%+11.8%+11.4%+11.0%+10.6%+10.2%+9.8%+9.4%+9.0%+8.6%+8.2%+7.8%+7.4%38%
Mar '26+15.8%+15.8%+16.0%+16.2%+16.5%+16.7%+16.9%+17.1%+17.3%+17.5%+17.7%+17.9%+18.1%+18.3%+18.5%+18.8%+19.0%34%
Apr '26+28.8%+24.4%+26.8%+29.1%+31.5%+33.9%+36.2%+38.5%+40.8%+43.2%+45.6%+47.7%+50.1%+52.4%+54.8%+57.1%29%
May '26+28.4%+29.0%+32.0%+35.1%+38.2%+41.3%+44.4%+47.4%+50.6%+53.7%+56.5%+59.6%+62.7%+65.8%+68.8%55%
Jun '26+18.7%+29.0%+31.6%+34.2%+36.7%+39.3%+41.8%+44.4%+46.9%+49.3%+51.9%+54.4%+56.9%+59.4%
Jul '26+29.0%+31.6%+34.2%+36.7%+39.3%+41.8%+44.4%+46.9%+49.3%+51.9%+54.4%+56.9%+59.4%

Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 6M window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.

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Why this metric matters →What drives it →What it misses →Where consensus is wrong →
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S&P 500 E-mini Futures | Blake Cutler