US Dollar Index (DXY)
A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.
Key Insight
DXY is trading near 101, down roughly 7% from its late-2022 peak near 114 but still elevated versus its 2010s average around 92 — a slow, orderly depreciation that reflects narrowing rate differentials rather than any loss of reserve-currency status.
100.9Index
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 22 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.8%, 3.5 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 7.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul 3.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.1% + 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (Index)
Projected value (Index)
| Forecast made in | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | 98.28 | 101.0 | 99.72 | 96.08 | 91.20 | 90.58 | 87.85 | 90.21 | 87.66 | 87.16 | 88.47 | 87.66 | 86.13 | 84.50 | 84.54 | 86.11 | 83.99 | 84.21 | 85.63 | 84.84 | 73.29 | 442% |
| Jan '26 | 96.99 | 97.17 | 92.89 | 87.39 | 86.03 | 82.66 | 84.10 | 80.94 | 79.69 | 80.10 | 78.55 | 76.39 | 74.14 | 73.36 | 73.96 | 71.31 | 70.68 | 71.01 | 69.52 | 54.75 | 778% | |
| Feb '26 | 97.61 | 93.01 | 87.43 | 86.00 | 82.56 | 83.93 | 80.70 | 79.37 | 79.70 | 78.08 | 75.86 | 73.54 | 72.69 | 73.21 | 70.50 | 69.79 | 70.02 | 68.47 | 53.68 | 933% | ||
| Mar '26 | 99.96 | 91.61 | 91.14 | 88.55 | 91.09 | 88.68 | 88.34 | 89.83 | 89.17 | 87.78 | 86.28 | 86.49 | 88.25 | 86.24 | 86.63 | 88.27 | 87.64 | 76.74 | 686% | |||
| Apr '26 | 98.08 | 95.55 | 94.04 | 97.94 | 96.59 | 97.44 | 100.3 | 100.8 | 100.5 | 100.0 | 101.5 | 104.7 | 103.6 | 105.3 | 108.7 | 109.1 | 105.4 | 375% | ||||
| May '26 | 98.91 | 96.36 | 101.2 | 100.6 | 102.3 | 106.0 | 107.4 | 107.8 | 108.0 | 110.4 | 114.6 | 114.1 | 116.8 | 121.2 | 122.5 | 123.8 | 91% | |||||
| Jun '26 | 101.2 | 103.3 | 103.4 | 105.8 | 110.3 | 112.4 | 113.4 | 114.3 | 117.5 | 122.5 | 122.6 | 126.0 | 131.4 | 133.4 | 139.2 | 13% | ||||||
| Jul '26 | 100.9 | 103.5 | 106.0 | 110.6 | 112.7 | 113.7 | 114.7 | 117.8 | 123.0 | 123.1 | 126.5 | 132.0 | 134.0 | 140.1 | ||||||||
| Aug '26 | 103.5 | 106.0 | 110.6 | 112.7 | 113.7 | 114.7 | 117.8 | 123.0 | 123.1 | 126.5 | 132.0 | 134.0 | 140.1 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | -10.2% | -6.8% | -7.3% | -7.8% | -8.3% | -8.8% | -9.3% | -9.8% | -10.3% | -10.9% | -11.3% | -11.9% | -12.4% | -12.9% | -13.4% | -13.9% | -14.4% | -14.9% | -15.4% | -15.9% | -16.4% | 442% |
| Jan '26 | -10.5% | -9.7% | -10.9% | -12.1% | -13.4% | -14.7% | -15.9% | -17.2% | -18.5% | -19.7% | -21.0% | -22.3% | -23.6% | -24.8% | -26.0% | -27.3% | -28.5% | -29.8% | -31.1% | -32.4% | 778% | |
| Feb '26 | -9.3% | -10.7% | -12.1% | -13.4% | -14.8% | -16.1% | -17.5% | -18.8% | -20.1% | -21.5% | -22.8% | -24.2% | -25.5% | -26.8% | -28.1% | -29.4% | -30.8% | -32.1% | -33.5% | 933% | ||
| Mar '26 | -4.1% | -7.9% | -8.2% | -8.6% | -8.9% | -9.3% | -9.6% | -10.0% | -10.3% | -10.7% | -11.0% | -11.4% | -11.7% | -12.1% | -12.4% | -12.8% | -13.1% | -13.5% | 686% | |||
| Apr '26 | -2.2% | -3.8% | -2.9% | -2.1% | -1.2% | -0.3% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +2.2% | +3.1% | +4.0% | +4.8% | +5.6% | +6.5% | +7.4% | +8.2% | +9.1% | 375% | ||||
| May '26 | -0.4% | -0.5% | +1.1% | +2.9% | +4.6% | +6.2% | +8.0% | +9.6% | +11.4% | +13.1% | +14.6% | +16.4% | +18.0% | +19.8% | +21.4% | +23.2% | 91% | |||||
| Jun '26 | +4.5% | +3.3% | +5.7% | +8.2% | +10.6% | +13.0% | +15.4% | +17.9% | +20.3% | +22.6% | +25.0% | +27.4% | +29.9% | +32.2% | +34.7% | 13% | ||||||
| Jul '26 | +3.8% | +5.9% | +8.4% | +10.8% | +13.3% | +15.7% | +18.2% | +20.7% | +23.0% | +25.5% | +27.9% | +30.4% | +32.8% | +35.3% | ||||||||
| Aug '26 | +5.9% | +8.4% | +10.8% | +13.3% | +15.7% | +18.2% | +20.7% | +23.0% | +25.5% | +27.9% | +30.4% | +32.8% | +35.3% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 6M window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.