Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Semiconductors sit upstream of electronics, autos, and AI infrastructure.

Key Insight

The SOX has roughly tripled from its late-2022 trough near 2,200 to approximately 6,400 in April 2026 — a gain that on a 40-month basis ranks as one of the sharpest sector moves in post-1990 market history and which has now clearly decoupled from the broader industrial cycle.

Generated by Claude on Apr 22, 2026
Exclude COVID

10.6kIndex

Trend YoY growth is +29.6%, accelerating by 2 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 109 consecutive periods. Latest: +141.0%, 111.4 pp above trend, a 2.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 37.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from May 1.

Level

YoY %

y = 29.4% + 2 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Forecast

Projected value by forecast vintage (Index)

Projected value (Index)

Forecast made inOct '25Nov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26Dec '26Jan '27Feb '27Mar '27Apr '27May '27Jun '27MAPE
Oct '257.2k6.6k7.1k7.5k7.5k7.1k7.3k8.6k10.5k11.0k11.6k13.6k16.0k16.1k16.7k19.5k20.4k19.7k28.1k29.2k29.7k23%
Nov '257.0k7.1k7.6k7.6k7.1k7.4k8.7k10.7k11.2k11.8k13.8k16.3k16.4k17.1k20.0k21.0k20.2k28.9k30.0k31.1k22%
Dec '257.1k7.4k7.4k6.9k7.1k8.4k10.2k10.7k11.2k13.1k15.4k15.4k16.1k18.7k19.6k18.9k26.9k27.9k27.5k32%
Jan '268.0k7.4k6.9k7.1k8.3k10.1k10.6k11.1k12.9k15.1k15.2k15.8k18.4k19.2k18.4k26.3k27.2k26.5k36%
Feb '268.1k7.0k7.2k8.5k10.3k10.8k11.3k13.2k15.5k15.6k16.3k19.0k19.8k19.1k27.2k28.2k28.1k39%
Mar '267.6k7.3k8.6k10.5k11.1k11.6k13.6k16.0k16.1k16.8k19.7k20.6k19.8k28.3k29.4k30.0k46%
Apr '2610.5k10.2k12.8k13.8k14.9k17.8k21.3k21.9k23.2k27.5k29.1k28.4k41.1k43.1k54.1k19%
May '2610.6k12.9k13.9k15.0k18.0k21.6k22.1k23.5k27.8k29.6k28.8k41.7k43.8k55.4k
Jun '2612.9k13.9k15.0k18.0k21.6k22.1k23.5k27.8k29.6k28.8k41.7k43.8k55.4k

YoY change forecast

Forecast made inOct '25Nov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26Dec '26Jan '27Feb '27Mar '27Apr '27May '27Jun '27MAPE
Oct '25+44.5%+34.6%+42.4%+50.3%+58.3%+65.5%+73.5%+81.3%+89.2%+97.0%+105.0%+112.9%+120.7%+128.7%+136.4%+144.4%+152.4%+159.6%+167.6%+175.3%+183.3%23%
Nov '25+42.6%+42.9%+51.3%+59.7%+67.3%+75.7%+83.9%+92.3%+100.4%+108.8%+117.3%+125.4%+133.8%+142.0%+150.4%+158.8%+166.4%+174.8%+182.9%+191.3%22%
Dec '25+41.1%+47.5%+54.9%+61.5%+68.9%+76.1%+83.4%+90.6%+98.0%+105.3%+112.5%+119.9%+127.0%+134.4%+141.8%+148.4%+155.8%+162.9%+170.3%32%
Jan '26+59.5%+54.3%+60.6%+67.6%+74.4%+81.4%+88.1%+95.1%+102.1%+108.9%+115.9%+122.6%+129.6%+136.6%+142.9%+149.9%+156.7%+163.7%36%
Feb '26+69.9%+62.8%+70.4%+77.7%+85.2%+92.5%+100.0%+107.6%+114.9%+122.4%+129.7%+137.2%+144.8%+151.6%+159.1%+166.4%+173.9%39%
Mar '26+77.2%+73.2%+81.1%+89.3%+97.3%+105.5%+113.7%+121.6%+129.8%+137.7%+145.9%+154.1%+161.5%+169.7%+177.6%+185.8%46%
Apr '26+147.3%+114.1%+130.4%+146.3%+162.6%+179.0%+194.8%+211.2%+227.0%+243.4%+259.8%+274.5%+290.9%+306.7%+323.1%19%
May '26+141.0%+132.1%+148.4%+165.2%+182.0%+198.3%+215.1%+231.3%+248.1%+264.9%+280.1%+296.9%+313.2%+330.0%
Jun '26+132.1%+148.4%+165.2%+182.0%+198.3%+215.1%+231.3%+248.1%+264.9%+280.1%+296.9%+313.2%+330.0%

Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 6M window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.

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