Core PCE Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
Key Insight
Core PCE has settled at roughly +2.4% YoY in the most recent print, down from its 5.6% 2022 peak and within 0.4 pp of the Fed's 2.0% target — the "last mile" has in fact been walked, defeating the widely-held 2023–2024 consensus that it would prove insurmountable without a recession.
3.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.2%, 4 bps above trend, a 0.04σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.0% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | Sep '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan '26 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 62% |
| Feb '26 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 67% | |
| Mar '26 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 119% | ||
| Apr '26 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 127% | |||
| May '26 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 142% | ||||
| Jun '26 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 168% | |||||
| Jul '26 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 150% | ||||||
| Aug '26 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.0 | ||||||||
| Sep '26 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | Sep '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan '26 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | 62% |
| Feb '26 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | 67% | |
| Mar '26 | +0.6% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | 119% | ||
| Apr '26 | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | 127% | |||
| May '26 | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | 142% | ||||
| Jun '26 | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.9% | 168% | |||||
| Jul '26 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | 150% | ||||||
| Aug '26 | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | ||||||||
| Sep '26 | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.