Copper
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
Key Insight
Copper is trading near $4.55/lb, roughly 15% above its 5-year average but well short of the $6–$8 "structural deficit" levels that electrification bulls have been forecasting since 2022 — the expected supply crunch has been materially slower to arrive than consensus predicted.
$5.9
Trend YoY growth is +11.6%, accelerating by 4 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 24 consecutive periods. Latest: +24.4%, 12.8 pp above trend, a 1.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from May 5.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.2% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (USD/lb)
Projected value (USD/lb)
| Forecast made in | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct '25 | $5.1 | $4.8 | $4.7 | $5.2 | $5.6 | $6.3 | $5.8 | $6.0 | $6.6 | $5.8 | $6.1 | $6.6 | $7.1 | $7.4 | $8.1 | $8.6 | $8.9 | $8.4 | $9.0 | $9.1 | $10.4 | 45% |
| Nov '25 | $5.2 | $4.7 | $5.0 | $5.4 | $6.0 | $5.5 | $5.7 | $6.2 | $5.4 | $5.7 | $6.1 | $6.5 | $6.7 | $7.3 | $7.7 | $7.9 | $7.4 | $7.9 | $7.9 | $8.4 | 44% | |
| Dec '25 | $5.6 | $5.3 | $5.8 | $6.5 | $6.0 | $6.2 | $6.8 | $6.0 | $6.3 | $6.9 | $7.3 | $7.6 | $8.4 | $8.9 | $9.3 | $8.7 | $9.4 | $9.4 | $11.2 | 52% | ||
| Jan '26 | $5.9 | $6.3 | $7.3 | $6.9 | $7.3 | $8.3 | $7.4 | $8.0 | $8.8 | $9.6 | $10.2 | $11.4 | $12.3 | $12.9 | $12.3 | $13.5 | $13.8 | $19.8 | 133% | |||
| Feb '26 | $6.0 | $7.0 | $6.6 | $7.0 | $7.8 | $7.0 | $7.5 | $8.2 | $8.9 | $9.4 | $10.5 | $11.4 | $11.9 | $11.3 | $12.3 | $12.6 | $17.1 | 136% | ||||
| Mar '26 | $5.6 | $5.8 | $6.0 | $6.5 | $5.7 | $6.0 | $6.4 | $6.8 | $7.0 | $7.7 | $8.1 | $8.3 | $7.8 | $8.3 | $8.4 | $9.3 | 12% | |||||
| Apr '26 | $5.9 | $5.8 | $6.3 | $5.4 | $5.6 | $5.9 | $6.2 | $6.3 | $6.8 | $7.1 | $7.2 | $6.7 | $7.0 | $6.9 | $7.3 | 3% | ||||||
| May '26 | $5.9 | $6.2 | $5.3 | $5.5 | $5.8 | $6.1 | $6.2 | $6.7 | $6.9 | $7.0 | $6.5 | $6.8 | $6.7 | $7.0 | ||||||||
| Jun '26 | $6.2 | $5.3 | $5.5 | $5.8 | $6.1 | $6.2 | $6.7 | $6.9 | $7.0 | $6.5 | $6.8 | $6.7 | $7.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct '25 | +16.5% | +17.0% | +19.0% | +21.2% | +23.3% | +25.2% | +27.3% | +29.4% | +31.5% | +33.6% | +35.7% | +37.8% | +39.9% | +42.0% | +44.1% | +46.2% | +48.4% | +50.3% | +52.4% | +54.5% | +56.6% | 45% |
| Nov '25 | +27.1% | +17.3% | +18.4% | +19.4% | +20.3% | +21.3% | +22.3% | +23.3% | +24.2% | +25.2% | +26.3% | +27.2% | +28.2% | +29.2% | +30.2% | +31.2% | +32.1% | +33.2% | +34.1% | +35.1% | 44% | |
| Dec '25 | +41.2% | +25.1% | +27.4% | +29.4% | +31.7% | +33.9% | +36.2% | +38.3% | +40.6% | +42.9% | +45.1% | +47.3% | +49.5% | +51.8% | +54.0% | +56.1% | +58.3% | +60.5% | +62.8% | 52% | ||
| Jan '26 | +38.4% | +39.5% | +45.3% | +51.7% | +57.9% | +64.4% | +70.6% | +77.0% | +83.4% | +89.6% | +96.0% | +102.2% | +108.6% | +115.0% | +120.8% | +127.2% | +133.4% | +139.8% | 133% | |||
| Feb '26 | +33.0% | +39.6% | +44.9% | +50.1% | +55.5% | +60.7% | +66.1% | +71.5% | +76.7% | +82.1% | +87.3% | +92.7% | +98.0% | +102.9% | +108.3% | +113.5% | +118.9% | 136% | ||||
| Mar '26 | +11.3% | +27.8% | +28.8% | +29.9% | +31.0% | +32.1% | +33.2% | +34.3% | +35.4% | +36.5% | +37.6% | +38.7% | +39.7% | +40.8% | +41.9% | +43.0% | 12% | |||||
| Apr '26 | +29.4% | +25.0% | +24.4% | +23.8% | +23.2% | +22.6% | +22.0% | +21.4% | +20.8% | +20.2% | +19.6% | +19.1% | +18.5% | +17.9% | +17.3% | 3% | ||||||
| May '26 | +24.4% | +23.6% | +22.7% | +21.9% | +21.0% | +20.1% | +19.2% | +18.4% | +17.5% | +16.6% | +15.8% | +14.9% | +14.0% | +13.1% | ||||||||
| Jun '26 | +23.6% | +22.7% | +21.9% | +21.0% | +20.1% | +19.2% | +18.4% | +17.5% | +16.6% | +15.8% | +14.9% | +14.0% | +13.1% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 6M window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.