Sovereign Debt — Condensed
Tracking the sustainability of US federal debt through solvency metrics, market confidence signals, resolution mechanisms, and fiscal trajectory. Most recent data from yesterday.
Solvency
Total public debt including intragovernmental holdings — the headline debt-to-GDP ratio.
122.6% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 10 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.0%, 13 bps below trend, a 0.02σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '25.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 3.0% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Debt held by external investors — the portion that must be financed in capital markets.
121.5% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +9.0%, slowing by 24 bps/year over the last 21Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 7.1 pp below trend, a 0.73σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 14.1% − 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Unified budget deficit as a share of GDP — negative values indicate a deficit.
-5.8% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, accelerating by 19 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: +5.9%, 4.9 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 7.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −3.0% + 19 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Quarterly federal government interest outlays — the direct cost of carrying the debt.
$1.2T
Trend YoY growth is +14.2%, accelerating by 69 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 7 consecutive periods. Latest: +7.4%, 6.7 pp below trend, a 0.64σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 8.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +1.6% by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = −3.2% + 69 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Federal debt relative to household net worth — measures the debt burden against the nation's total wealth base.
21.4% of net worth
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +0.0%, 4 bps above trend, a 0.03σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market Confidence
Benchmark cost of government borrowing — higher yields increase the cost of rolling over debt.
4.6%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.4 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.3%, 3 bps below trend, a 0.19σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation-adjusted yield — measures the real cost of government borrowing.
2.4%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2.5 pp/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 21 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.5%, 21 bps above trend, a 0.89σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.3% + 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market-implied inflation expectation — above 3% signals markets pricing a soft default via inflation.
2.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 7 bps/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 44 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 13 bps below trend, a 1.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Resolution Mechanism
Inflation erodes the real value of outstanding debt — the historically preferred resolution for sovereign debt crises.
3.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 98 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.9%, 72 bps above trend, a 0.33σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total Federal Reserve assets — monetization of debt through asset purchases suppresses yields.
$6.8T
Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, slowing by 89 bps/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 51 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.4%, 69 bps below trend, a 0.04σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.1% − 89 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Fiscal Trajectory
Total federal spending — the expenditure side of the fiscal equation.
$7.0T
Trend YoY growth is +26.4%, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: +2.8%, 23.6 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 23.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 25.7% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total federal tax revenue — the income side of the fiscal equation.
$5.9B
Trend YoY growth is +7.7%, accelerating by 26 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +8.9%, 1.2 pp above trend, a 0.17σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 53 bps due to an easy comparison base from Jan '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.3% + 26 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend