Sovereign Debt — Condensed
Tracking the sustainability of US federal debt through solvency metrics, market confidence signals, resolution mechanisms, and fiscal trajectory. Most recent data from 2 days ago.
Solvency
Total public debt including intragovernmental holdings — the headline debt-to-GDP ratio.
122.6% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 10 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.0%, 13 bps below trend, a 0.02σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '25.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 3.0% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Debt held by external investors — the portion that must be financed in capital markets.
121.5% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +9.0%, slowing by 24 bps/year over the last 21Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 7.1 pp below trend, a 0.73σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 14.1% − 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Unified budget deficit as a share of GDP — negative values indicate a deficit.
-5.8% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, accelerating by 19 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: +5.9%, 4.9 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 7.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −3.0% + 19 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Quarterly federal government interest outlays — the direct cost of carrying the debt.
$1.2T
Trend YoY growth is +14.2%, accelerating by 69 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 7 consecutive periods. Latest: +7.4%, 6.7 pp below trend, a 0.64σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 8.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +1.6% by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = −3.2% + 69 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Federal debt relative to household net worth — measures the debt burden against the nation's total wealth base.
21.4% of net worth
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +0.0%, 4 bps above trend, a 0.03σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market Confidence
Benchmark cost of government borrowing — higher yields increase the cost of rolling over debt.
4.7%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.4 pp/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.5%, 8 bps above trend, a 0.43σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation-adjusted yield — measures the real cost of government borrowing.
2.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2.5 pp/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 31 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.5%, 25 bps above trend, a 1.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.3% + 2 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market-implied inflation expectation — above 3% signals markets pricing a soft default via inflation.
2.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 6 bps/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 54 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 12 bps below trend, a 1.3σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Resolution Mechanism
Inflation erodes the real value of outstanding debt — the historically preferred resolution for sovereign debt crises.
3.5%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 98 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.9%, 72 bps above trend, a 0.33σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total Federal Reserve assets — monetization of debt through asset purchases suppresses yields.
$6.7T
Trend YoY growth is +3.0%, slowing by 89 bps/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 51 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.06σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Aug '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +2.7% by Nov '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.1% − 89 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Fiscal Trajectory
Total federal spending — the expenditure side of the fiscal equation.
$7.0T
Trend YoY growth is +26.4%, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: +2.8%, 23.6 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 23.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 25.7% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total federal tax revenue — the income side of the fiscal equation.
$6.0B
Trend YoY growth is +7.7%, accelerating by 25 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +6.7%, 95 bps below trend, a 0.13σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +1.4% by Sep '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.3% + 25 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend