Sovereign Debt — Condensed
Tracking the sustainability of US federal debt through solvency metrics, market confidence signals, resolution mechanisms, and fiscal trajectory. Most recent data from 2 days ago.
Solvency
Total public debt including intragovernmental holdings — the headline debt-to-GDP ratio.
121.2% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +3.0%, 80 bps above trend, a 0.14σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 3.0% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Debt held by external investors — the portion that must be financed in capital markets.
121.1% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +8.8%, slowing by 25 bps/year over the last 21Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.6%, 7.3 pp below trend, a 0.75σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 15.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 14.2% − 25 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Unified budget deficit as a share of GDP — negative values indicate a deficit.
-5.8% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, accelerating by 19 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: +5.9%, 4.9 pp above trend, a 1.00σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 7.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −3.0% + 19 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Quarterly federal government interest outlays — the direct cost of carrying the debt.
$1.3T
Trend YoY growth is +14.5%, accelerating by 70 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 7 consecutive periods. Latest: +7.3%, 7.2 pp below trend, a 0.71σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 5.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jul '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +6.1% by Dec '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = −3.3% + 70 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Federal debt relative to household net worth — measures the debt burden against the nation's total wealth base.
20.1% of net worth
Trend YoY growth is -0.1%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -0.5%, 44 bps below trend, a 0.42σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 55 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market Confidence
Benchmark cost of government borrowing — higher yields increase the cost of rolling over debt.
5.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 26Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 44 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.0%, 58 bps above trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 65 bps due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation-adjusted yield — measures the real cost of government borrowing.
2.7%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2.6 pp/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 71 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.9%, 59 bps above trend, a 1.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 55 bps due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.3% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market-implied inflation expectation — above 3% signals markets pricing a soft default via inflation.
2.4%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 6 bps/year over the last 23Y. Latest: +0.1%, 4 bps above trend, a 0.51σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Resolution Mechanism
Inflation erodes the real value of outstanding debt — the historically preferred resolution for sovereign debt crises.
4.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.2%, accelerating by 1.1 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +1.1%, 92 bps above trend, a 0.43σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total Federal Reserve assets — monetization of debt through asset purchases suppresses yields.
$6.7T
Trend YoY growth is +2.8%, slowing by 89 bps/year over the last 23Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 53 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.4%, 43 bps below trend, a 0.03σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 9.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.1% − 89 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Fiscal Trajectory
Total federal spending — the expenditure side of the fiscal equation.
$7.4T
Trend YoY growth is +25.1%, slowing by 5 bps/year over the last 22Y. Latest: +17.9%, 7.2 pp below trend, a 0.34σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 22.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 26.3% − 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total federal tax revenue — the income side of the fiscal equation.
$6.1B
Trend YoY growth is +7.8%, accelerating by 26 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +7.0%, 75 bps below trend, a 0.11σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 3.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.2% + 26 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend