10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
Inflation-adjusted yield — measures the real cost of government borrowing.
Key Insight
The 10Y TIPS real yield is near 2.1% in April 2026, sustaining a range above 1.8% for three consecutive years — the longest stretch of meaningfully positive real rates since before the 2008 crisis, and the clearest market signal that the secular-stagnation regime has ended.
1.9%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 22Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 341 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 42 bps below trend, a 3.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.3% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct '25 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 100% |
| Nov '25 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 110% | |
| Dec '25 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 158% | ||
| Jan '26 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 150% | |||
| Feb '26 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 186% | ||||
| Mar '26 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 133% | |||||
| Apr '26 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 33% | ||||||
| May '26 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | ||||||||
| Jun '26 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct '25 | -0.2% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 100% |
| Nov '25 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 110% | |
| Dec '25 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 158% | ||
| Jan '26 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 150% | |||
| Feb '26 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 186% | ||||
| Mar '26 | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 133% | |||||
| Apr '26 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | 33% | ||||||
| May '26 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | ||||||||
| Jun '26 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.