Debt Held by Public (% of GDP)
Debt held by external investors — the portion that must be financed in capital markets.
Key Insight
Debt held by the public — the portion that must actually be financed in capital markets — sits near 100% of GDP in early 2026, matching the 1946 WWII peak but with a fundamentally different creditor base and rate environment.
121.5% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +9.0%, slowing by 0.2 pp/year over the last 21Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 7.1 pp below trend, a 0.73σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan 1.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.1% − 0.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (% of GDP)
Projected value (% of GDP)
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 103.9 | 104.3 | 103.9 | 122.8 | 114.9 | 111.9 | 110.5 | 110.4 | 110.0 | 96.7 | 81.7 | 65.1 | 181% |
| 2019 | 105.2 | 110.1 | 130.9 | 124.8 | 123.6 | 124.0 | 125.8 | 127.2 | 132.9 | 138.9 | 144.9 | 111% | |
| 2020 | 125.9 | 144.6 | 142.0 | 144.3 | 148.1 | 153.3 | 158.2 | 198.4 | 242.2 | 289.6 | 493% | ||
| 2021 | 119.6 | 143.3 | 146.4 | 151.1 | 157.2 | 162.9 | 208.7 | 258.9 | 313.6 | 684% | |||
| 2022 | 118.4 | 140.9 | 144.5 | 149.5 | 154.1 | 190.1 | 229.4 | 272.1 | 700% | ||||
| 2023 | 118.6 | 135.2 | 137.5 | 139.4 | 158.1 | 177.4 | 197.4 | 613% | |||||
| 2024 | 120.2 | 114.9 | 110.3 | 93.3 | 70.4 | 41.7 | 390% | ||||||
| 2025 | 121.5 | 114.8 | 103.1 | 86.4 | 64.8 | ||||||||
| 2026 | 114.8 | 103.1 | 86.4 | 64.8 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +2.8% | +0.4% | -1.3% | -3.0% | -4.7% | -6.4% | -8.1% | -9.8% | -11.5% | -13.3% | -15.0% | -16.7% | 181% |
| 2019 | +6.2% | +4.9% | +5.0% | +5.2% | +5.3% | +5.4% | +5.5% | +5.7% | +5.8% | +5.9% | +6.0% | 111% | |
| 2020 | +21.9% | +18.8% | +22.3% | +25.9% | +29.5% | +33.1% | +36.7% | +40.2% | +43.8% | +47.4% | 493% | ||
| 2021 | +16.6% | +23.6% | +28.1% | +32.5% | +36.9% | +41.4% | +45.8% | +50.2% | +54.7% | 684% | |||
| 2022 | +14.5% | +22.5% | +25.9% | +29.2% | +32.6% | +36.0% | +39.3% | +42.7% | 700% | ||||
| 2023 | +13.4% | +16.6% | +17.3% | +17.9% | +18.6% | +19.3% | +20.0% | 613% | |||||
| 2024 | -5.6% | -5.4% | -11.2% | -17.0% | -22.9% | -28.7% | 390% | ||||||
| 2025 | +1.9% | -6.7% | -11.7% | -16.6% | -21.6% | ||||||||
| 2026 | -6.7% | -11.7% | -16.6% | -21.6% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.