CPI Inflation (YoY)
Inflation erodes the real value of outstanding debt — the historically preferred resolution for sovereign debt crises.
Key Insight
Headline CPI is running near +2.8% YoY in March 2026 — stuck in a 2.5%–3.2% range for roughly 18 months, meaningfully above the Fed's 2% target but well below the crisis peaks of 2022 — which is itself the story: inflation has stabilized, just not at 2%.
4.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +1.6%, 149 bps above trend, a 0.67σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 111 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr 1.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug '25 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 166% |
| Sep '25 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 248% | |
| Nov '25 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 286% | ||||
| Dec '25 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 429% | |||||
| Jan '26 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 110% | ||||||
| Feb '26 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 46% | |||||||
| Mar '26 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 62% | ||||||||
| Apr '26 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | ||||||||||
| May '26 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug '25 | +0.3% | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | 166% |
| Sep '25 | +0.6% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.7% | 248% | |
| Nov '25 | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | 286% | |||
| Dec '25 | +0.3% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | 429% | ||||
| Jan '26 | +0.0% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | 110% | |||||
| Feb '26 | -0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.6% | 46% | ||||||
| Mar '26 | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.9% | +2.0% | 62% | |||||||
| Apr '26 | +1.6% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.4% | |||||||||
| May '26 | +0.9% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.