Sovereign Debt

Total public debt including intragovernmental holdings — the headline debt-to-GDP ratio.

Debt held by external investors — the portion that must be financed in capital markets.

Unified budget deficit as a share of GDP — negative values indicate a deficit.

Quarterly federal government interest outlays — the direct cost of carrying the debt.

Benchmark cost of government borrowing — higher yields increase the cost of rolling over debt.

Inflation-adjusted yield — measures the real cost of government borrowing.

Market-implied inflation expectation — above 3% signals markets pricing a soft default via inflation.

Inflation erodes the real value of outstanding debt — the historically preferred resolution for sovereign debt crises.

Total Federal Reserve assets — monetization of debt through asset purchases suppresses yields.

Total federal spending — the expenditure side of the fiscal equation.

Total federal tax revenue — the income side of the fiscal equation.