Sovereign Debt
Tracking the sustainability of US federal debt through solvency metrics, market confidence signals, resolution mechanisms, and fiscal trajectory.
Updated yesterday.
Solvency
Total public debt including intragovernmental holdings — the headline debt-to-GDP ratio.
122.6% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 9 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.18σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 3.0% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Debt held by external investors — the portion that must be financed in capital markets.
121.5% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +9.0%, slowing by 24 bps/year over the last 21Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 7.1 pp below trend, a 0.73σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 14.1% − 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Unified budget deficit as a share of GDP — negative values indicate a deficit.
-5.8% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, accelerating by 19 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: +5.9%, 4.9 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 7.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −3.0% + 19 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Quarterly federal government interest outlays — the direct cost of carrying the debt.
$1.2T
Trend YoY growth is +14.4%, accelerating by 72 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +6.2%, 8.2 pp below trend, a 0.77σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −3.5% + 72 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Federal debt relative to household net worth — measures the debt burden against the nation's total wealth base.
20.9% of net worth
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -0.4%, 40 bps below trend, a 0.37σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market Confidence
Benchmark cost of government borrowing — higher yields increase the cost of rolling over debt.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 149 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 48 bps below trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 54 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation-adjusted yield — measures the real cost of government borrowing.
1.9%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2.5 pp/year over the last 22Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 331 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.2%, 49 bps below trend, a 3.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.3% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market-implied inflation expectation — above 3% signals markets pricing a soft default via inflation.
2.4%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 8 bps/year over the last 22Y. Latest: +0.1%, 6 bps above trend, a 0.60σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Resolution Mechanism
Inflation erodes the real value of outstanding debt — the historically preferred resolution for sovereign debt crises.
3.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.5%, 46 bps above trend, a 0.20σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total Federal Reserve assets — monetization of debt through asset purchases suppresses yields.
$6.7T
Trend YoY growth is +3.5%, slowing by 88 bps/year over the last 22Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 46 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 3.5 pp below trend, a 0.18σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +0.9% by Jul '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.0% − 88 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Fiscal Trajectory
Total federal spending — the expenditure side of the fiscal equation.
$7.0T
Trend YoY growth is +26.4%, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: +2.8%, 23.6 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 23.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 25.7% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total federal tax revenue — the income side of the fiscal equation.
$5.9B
Trend YoY growth is +7.6%, accelerating by 25 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +11.4%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.53σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 55 bps due to an tough comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.3% + 25 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
The U.S. debt trajectory is being temporarily masked by two forces — strong nominal GDP growth compressing the debt-to-GDP ratio and falling real yields reducing the market's demanded compensation — but the underlying fiscal math is deteriorating on every measure that matters.
Sovereign Debt
Tracking the sustainability of US federal debt through solvency metrics, market confidence signals, resolution mechanisms, and fiscal trajectory.
Updated yesterday.
Solvency
Total public debt including intragovernmental holdings — the headline debt-to-GDP ratio.
122.6% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 9 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.18σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 3.0% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Debt held by external investors — the portion that must be financed in capital markets.
121.5% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +9.0%, slowing by 24 bps/year over the last 21Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 7.1 pp below trend, a 0.73σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 14.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 14.1% − 24 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Unified budget deficit as a share of GDP — negative values indicate a deficit.
-5.8% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, accelerating by 19 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: +5.9%, 4.9 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 7.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jan '24.
Level
Change (pp)
y = −3.0% + 19 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Quarterly federal government interest outlays — the direct cost of carrying the debt.
$1.2T
Trend YoY growth is +14.4%, accelerating by 72 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +6.2%, 8.2 pp below trend, a 0.77σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −3.5% + 72 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Federal debt relative to household net worth — measures the debt burden against the nation's total wealth base.
20.9% of net worth
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -0.4%, 40 bps below trend, a 0.37σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market Confidence
Benchmark cost of government borrowing — higher yields increase the cost of rolling over debt.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 3.5 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 149 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 48 bps below trend, a 2.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 54 bps due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.5% + 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation-adjusted yield — measures the real cost of government borrowing.
1.9%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2.5 pp/year over the last 22Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 331 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.2%, 49 bps below trend, a 3.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.3% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market-implied inflation expectation — above 3% signals markets pricing a soft default via inflation.
2.4%
Trend YoY growth is +0.0%, accelerating by 8 bps/year over the last 22Y. Latest: +0.1%, 6 bps above trend, a 0.60σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Resolution Mechanism
Inflation erodes the real value of outstanding debt — the historically preferred resolution for sovereign debt crises.
3.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.5%, 46 bps above trend, a 0.20σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total Federal Reserve assets — monetization of debt through asset purchases suppresses yields.
$6.7T
Trend YoY growth is +3.5%, slowing by 88 bps/year over the last 22Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 46 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 3.5 pp below trend, a 0.18σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +0.9% by Jul '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.0% − 88 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Fiscal Trajectory
Total federal spending — the expenditure side of the fiscal equation.
$7.0T
Trend YoY growth is +26.4%, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 21Y. Latest: +2.8%, 23.6 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 23.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 25.7% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total federal tax revenue — the income side of the fiscal equation.
$5.9B
Trend YoY growth is +7.6%, accelerating by 25 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +11.4%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.53σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 55 bps due to an tough comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.3% + 25 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend