Gross Federal Debt (% of GDP)
Total public debt including intragovernmental holdings — the headline debt-to-GDP ratio.
Key Insight
Gross federal debt has pushed past 123% of GDP in early 2026, eclipsing the WWII peak of 119% and establishing a new postwar high — crucially, reached outside of any war or depression, entirely on structural deficits.
122.6% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 9 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.18σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.0% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (% of GDP)
Projected value (% of GDP)
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | 120.5 | 123.0 | 124.2 | 125.9 | 125.6 | 124.3 | 127.1 | 129.1 | 132.7 | 416% |
| Q2 '25 | 118.8 | 122.6 | 124.2 | 123.6 | 122.1 | 124.7 | 126.5 | 127.9 | 159% | |
| Q3 '25 | 121.0 | 123.7 | 123.1 | 121.6 | 124.1 | 125.9 | 126.7 | 104% | ||
| Q4 '25 | 122.6 | 122.5 | 120.9 | 123.3 | 125.0 | 125.1 | ||||
| Q1 '26 | 122.5 | 120.9 | 123.3 | 125.0 | 125.1 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | +0.1% | +3.5% | +4.0% | +4.5% | +5.0% | +5.5% | +6.0% | +6.6% | +7.1% | 416% |
| Q2 '25 | -0.7% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +3.0% | +3.3% | +3.7% | +4.0% | +4.3% | 159% | |
| Q3 '25 | +0.9% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.8% | +3.1% | +3.3% | +3.6% | 104% | ||
| Q4 '25 | +1.1% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +2.6% | ||||
| Q1 '26 | +1.9% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +2.6% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 3Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.