Net Federal Outlays
Total federal spending — the expenditure side of the fiscal equation.
$7.4T
Trend YoY growth is +25.1%, slowing by 5 bps/year over the last 22Y. Latest: +17.9%, 7.2 pp below trend, a 0.34σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 22.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from Sep 30.
Level
YoY %
y = 26.3% − 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($M)
Projected value ($M)
| Forecast made in | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $4.4T | $5.6T | $8.5T | $9.2T | $8.7T | $8.8T | $10.0T | $10.7T | $11.6T | $18.7T | $31.0T | $52.8T | 470% |
| 2020 | $6.6T | $10.7T | $12.0T | $11.8T | $12.4T | $14.5T | $15.9T | $17.7T | $44.7T | $118.5T | $328.9T | 1332% | |
| 2021 | $6.8T | $12.8T | $12.8T | $13.5T | $16.0T | $17.7T | $19.9T | $57.0T | $172.5T | $550.2T | 1917% | ||
| 2022 | $6.3T | $11.4T | $11.9T | $13.9T | $15.3T | $17.1T | $41.4T | $105.6T | $282.1T | 1836% | |||
| 2023 | $6.1T | $9.5T | $10.6T | $11.2T | $11.9T | $19.3T | $31.8T | $52.8T | 1298% | ||||
| 2024 | $6.8T | $6.6T | $5.7T | $4.8T | $2.3T | $716.6B | $104.0B | 186% | |||||
| 2025 | $7.0T | $5.5T | $4.5T | $1.9T | $430.9B | $19.2B | 217% | ||||||
| 2026 | $7.4T | $6.8T | $5.6T | $4.0T | $2.4T | ||||||||
| 2027 | $6.8T | $5.6T | $4.0T | $2.4T |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | +20.6% | +25.9% | +30.3% | +34.7% | +39.2% | +43.6% | +48.0% | +52.5% | +56.9% | +61.3% | +65.8% | +70.2% | 470% |
| 2020 | +70.0% | +63.5% | +76.2% | +88.8% | +101.6% | +114.2% | +126.9% | +139.6% | +152.3% | +165.0% | +177.7% | 1332% | |
| 2021 | +71.3% | +87.0% | +103.5% | +120.0% | +136.5% | +153.0% | +169.5% | +186.0% | +202.5% | +219.0% | 1917% | ||
| 2022 | +52.7% | +81.9% | +94.1% | +106.3% | +118.4% | +130.6% | +142.8% | +155.0% | +167.2% | 1836% | |||
| 2023 | +38.0% | +55.6% | +57.4% | +59.1% | +60.9% | +62.6% | +64.4% | +66.1% | 1298% | ||||
| 2024 | +3.0% | -1.9% | -18.6% | -35.3% | -52.1% | -68.8% | -85.5% | 186% | |||||
| 2025 | +2.8% | -20.9% | -39.6% | -58.3% | -76.9% | -95.5% | 217% | ||||||
| 2026 | +17.9% | -7.7% | -18.2% | -28.6% | -39.1% | ||||||||
| 2027 | -7.7% | -18.2% | -28.6% | -39.1% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.