The Electric Tech Stack
A US vs China scorecard across batteries, electric vehicles, and industrial capacity — every chart shows the gap as a single line. When the line climbs, China is pulling ahead. Most recent data from 2023.
Key Insight
China's lead across the electric tech stack has stopped widening — the ratios are stable at commanding levels rather than still climbing, which is a more concerning steady-state than the conventional 'China is pulling ahead' framing suggests.
Batteries & Critical Minerals
China's share of global lithium-ion battery cell production for EVs — the headline number in Noah Smith's argument. From roughly a third of world output a decade ago to ~75% today. Source: BNEF / industry estimates, author-curated annual snapshots.
75.0%
Trend YoY growth is +4.1%, slowing by 26.2 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +3.0%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 5.9% − 26 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global lithium chemical refining capacity — the upstream choke point. Even as Australia and Chile lead in mining, refined lithium passes through Chinese facilities. Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries / industry estimates.
65.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 34.5 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +0.0%, 67 bps below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 99 bps due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 3.1% − 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global rare earth element mine production. Has fallen from ~95% in 2010 as Mountain Pass (US) and other mines came online, but remains the dominant single source. Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.
68.0%
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, accelerating by 119.0 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -2.0%, 4.2 pp below trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 9.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −6.2% + 1.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Electric Vehicles
Ratio of annual electric car sales (BEV + PHEV). 1.0 = parity. China has gone from ~1.8× the US in 2015 to ~6× by 2022 — the most direct measure of China's downstream lead. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook.
5.77×
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -1.1%, 1.4 pp below trend, a 2.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.6% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global electric car sales each year. From ~38% in 2015 to ~58% in 2023 — China alone now outsells the rest of the world combined in some years. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook.
58.0%
Trend YoY growth is +1.3%, slowing by 33.3 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -7.0%, 8.3 pp below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 14.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 3.7% − 33 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of cumulative electric car stock on the road. 1.0 = parity. The US led in 2015; China now has ~5× more EVs deployed. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook.
5.64×
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, accelerating by 10 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +1.0%, 1 bps above trend, a 0.0σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.3% + 10 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial & Manufacturing Capacity
Ratio of new industrial robot installations per year. 1.0 = parity. China was 2.5× the US in 2015 and is now ~7× — the clearest single measure of how much faster Chinese factories are automating than American ones. Source: IFR World Robotics annual report.
7.26×
Trend YoY growth is +0.5%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -0.1%, 57 bps below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 64 bps due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global solar photovoltaic cell manufacturing. The canonical example of an electric-tech-stack industry where China went from competitor to monopoly while US producers exited. Source: IEA Solar PV Global Supply Chains.
85.0%
Trend YoY growth is +2.6%, accelerating by 20.2 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +2.0%, 58 bps below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 62 bps due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 1.2% + 20 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of total manufacturing value added in current US dollars. 1.0 = parity. The aggregate measure of industrial output capacity — China crossed parity around 2010 and is now ~1.7×. Source: World Bank (reused from US vs China dashboard).
1.76×
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 22Y. Latest: -0.0%, 3 bps below trend, a 0.3σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.1% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Explore
The Electric Tech Stack
A US vs China scorecard across batteries, electric vehicles, and industrial capacity — every chart shows the gap as a single line. When the line climbs, China is pulling ahead. Most recent data from 2023.
Key Insight
China's lead across the electric tech stack has stopped widening — the ratios are stable at commanding levels rather than still climbing, which is a more concerning steady-state than the conventional 'China is pulling ahead' framing suggests.
Batteries & Critical Minerals
China's share of global lithium-ion battery cell production for EVs — the headline number in Noah Smith's argument. From roughly a third of world output a decade ago to ~75% today. Source: BNEF / industry estimates, author-curated annual snapshots.
75.0%
Trend YoY growth is +4.1%, slowing by 26.2 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +3.0%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 5.9% − 26 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global lithium chemical refining capacity — the upstream choke point. Even as Australia and Chile lead in mining, refined lithium passes through Chinese facilities. Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries / industry estimates.
65.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 34.5 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +0.0%, 67 bps below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 99 bps due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 3.1% − 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global rare earth element mine production. Has fallen from ~95% in 2010 as Mountain Pass (US) and other mines came online, but remains the dominant single source. Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.
68.0%
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, accelerating by 119.0 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -2.0%, 4.2 pp below trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 9.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −6.2% + 1.2 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Electric Vehicles
Ratio of annual electric car sales (BEV + PHEV). 1.0 = parity. China has gone from ~1.8× the US in 2015 to ~6× by 2022 — the most direct measure of China's downstream lead. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook.
5.77×
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -1.1%, 1.4 pp below trend, a 2.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.6% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global electric car sales each year. From ~38% in 2015 to ~58% in 2023 — China alone now outsells the rest of the world combined in some years. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook.
58.0%
Trend YoY growth is +1.3%, slowing by 33.3 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -7.0%, 8.3 pp below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 14.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 3.7% − 33 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of cumulative electric car stock on the road. 1.0 = parity. The US led in 2015; China now has ~5× more EVs deployed. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook.
5.64×
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, accelerating by 10 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +1.0%, 1 bps above trend, a 0.0σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.3% + 10 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Industrial & Manufacturing Capacity
Ratio of new industrial robot installations per year. 1.0 = parity. China was 2.5× the US in 2015 and is now ~7× — the clearest single measure of how much faster Chinese factories are automating than American ones. Source: IFR World Robotics annual report.
7.26×
Trend YoY growth is +0.5%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -0.1%, 57 bps below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 64 bps due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
China's share of global solar photovoltaic cell manufacturing. The canonical example of an electric-tech-stack industry where China went from competitor to monopoly while US producers exited. Source: IEA Solar PV Global Supply Chains.
85.0%
Trend YoY growth is +2.6%, accelerating by 20.2 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +2.0%, 58 bps below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 62 bps due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 1.2% + 20 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Ratio of total manufacturing value added in current US dollars. 1.0 = parity. The aggregate measure of industrial output capacity — China crossed parity around 2010 and is now ~1.7×. Source: World Bank (reused from US vs China dashboard).
1.76×
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 22Y. Latest: -0.0%, 3 bps below trend, a 0.3σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.1% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend