EV Stock on Road: China ÷ US
Ratio of cumulative electric car stock on the road. 1.0 = parity. The US led in 2015; China now has ~5× more EVs deployed. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook.
5.64×
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, accelerating by 0.1 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +1.0%, 0.0 pp above trend, a 0.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.3% + 0.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1.61 | 2.17 | 2.73 | 3.08 | 3.57 | 4.48 | 5.68 | 6.74 | 7.93 | 9.21 | 10.58 | 43% |
| 2018 | 2.08 | 2.61 | 2.91 | 3.36 | 4.22 | 5.38 | 6.39 | 7.19 | 8.03 | 8.92 | 47% | |
| 2019 | 2.34 | 2.65 | 3.01 | 3.79 | 4.87 | 5.80 | 5.93 | 6.02 | 6.07 | 62% | ||
| 2020 | 2.74 | 3.09 | 3.89 | 4.98 | 5.93 | 6.21 | 6.47 | 6.71 | 68% | |||
| 2021 | 3.56 | 4.23 | 5.41 | 6.44 | 7.30 | 8.23 | 9.22 | 32% | ||||
| 2022 | 4.67 | 5.83 | 6.99 | 8.52 | 10.24 | 12.14 | 24% | |||||
| 2023 | 5.64 | 6.99 | 8.55 | 10.33 | 12.32 | |||||||
| 2024 | 6.99 | 8.55 | 10.33 | 12.32 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | 43% |
| 2018 | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | 47% | |
| 2019 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 62% | ||
| 2020 | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.2% | 68% | |||
| 2021 | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | 32% | ||||
| 2022 | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.9% | 24% | |||||
| 2023 | +1.0% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +2.0% | |||||||
| 2024 | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +2.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.