China Share of Global Solar PV Cell Production
China's share of global solar photovoltaic cell manufacturing. The canonical example of an electric-tech-stack industry where China went from competitor to monopoly while US producers exited. Source: IEA Solar PV Global Supply Chains.
85.0%
Trend YoY growth is +2.6%, accelerating by 20 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +2.0%, 58 bps below trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 62 bps due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change
y = 1.2% + 20 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 73.0 | 76.0 | 79.0 | 81.0 | 82.0 | 87.0 | 91.0 | 94.0 | 104.0 | 114.9 | 126.9 | 167% |
| 2018 | 75.0 | 77.7 | 79.2 | 79.7 | 84.2 | 87.7 | 90.2 | 95.8 | 102.0 | 108.7 | 88% | |
| 2019 | 76.0 | 77.5 | 77.5 | 81.5 | 84.5 | 86.5 | 88.0 | 89.5 | 91.0 | 46% | ||
| 2020 | 76.0 | 76.3 | 80.0 | 82.7 | 84.4 | 83.5 | 82.3 | 80.8 | 103% | |||
| 2021 | 80.0 | 82.4 | 85.6 | 87.8 | 90.8 | 94.0 | 97.4 | 25% | ||||
| 2022 | 83.0 | 86.5 | 89.0 | 93.5 | 98.5 | 104.0 | 75% | |||||
| 2023 | 85.0 | 88.5 | 92.5 | 97.0 | 102.0 | |||||||
| 2024 | 88.5 | 92.5 | 97.0 | 102.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +2.0% | +3.0% | +4.0% | +5.0% | +6.0% | +7.0% | +8.0% | +9.0% | +10.0% | +11.0% | +12.0% | 167% |
| 2018 | +2.0% | +2.7% | +3.2% | +3.7% | +4.2% | +4.7% | +5.2% | +5.7% | +6.2% | +6.7% | 88% | |
| 2019 | +1.0% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | 46% | ||
| 2020 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | -0.6% | -0.9% | -1.2% | -1.5% | 103% | |||
| 2021 | +4.0% | +2.4% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +3.4% | 25% | ||||
| 2022 | +3.0% | +3.5% | +4.0% | +4.5% | +5.0% | +5.5% | 75% | |||||
| 2023 | +2.0% | +3.5% | +4.0% | +4.5% | +5.0% | |||||||
| 2024 | +3.5% | +4.0% | +4.5% | +5.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.