China Share of Global Lithium Refining
China's share of global lithium chemical refining capacity — the upstream choke point. Even as Australia and Chile lead in mining, refined lithium passes through Chinese facilities. Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries / industry estimates.
65.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.7%, slowing by 34 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: +0.0%, 67 bps below trend, a 1.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 99 bps due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change
y = 3.1% − 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 56.0 | 59.0 | 61.0 | 63.0 | 65.0 | 66.0 | 68.0 | 68.0 | 71.0 | 74.0 | 77.0 | 80% |
| 2018 | 58.0 | 59.7 | 61.2 | 62.7 | 63.2 | 64.7 | 64.2 | 62.8 | 61.0 | 58.7 | 44% | |
| 2019 | 60.0 | 61.5 | 63.1 | 63.7 | 65.3 | 64.9 | 64.4 | 63.5 | 62.2 | 33% | ||
| 2020 | 62.0 | 63.5 | 64.2 | 65.9 | 65.6 | 65.9 | 65.9 | 65.6 | 45% | |||
| 2021 | 63.0 | 63.8 | 65.4 | 65.0 | 64.6 | 63.8 | 62.6 | 60% | ||||
| 2022 | 65.0 | 66.5 | 66.4 | 67.7 | 68.9 | 70.0 | ||||||
| 2023 | 65.0 | 65.2 | 65.0 | 64.4 | 63.4 | |||||||
| 2024 | 65.2 | 65.0 | 64.4 | 63.4 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | 80% |
| 2018 | +2.0% | +1.7% | +1.2% | +0.7% | +0.2% | -0.3% | -0.8% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.3% | 44% | |
| 2019 | +2.0% | +1.5% | +1.1% | +0.7% | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.9% | -1.3% | 33% | ||
| 2020 | +2.0% | +1.5% | +1.2% | +0.9% | +0.6% | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | 45% | |||
| 2021 | +1.0% | +0.8% | +0.4% | +0.0% | -0.4% | -0.8% | -1.2% | 60% | ||||
| 2022 | +2.0% | +1.5% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +1.2% | +1.1% | ||||||
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -1.0% | |||||||
| 2024 | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -1.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.