Industrial Robot Installations: China ÷ US
Ratio of new industrial robot installations per year. 1.0 = parity. China was 2.5× the US in 2015 and is now ~7× — the clearest single measure of how much faster Chinese factories are automating than American ones. Source: IFR World Robotics annual report.
7.26×
Trend YoY growth is +0.5%, slowing by 0.0 pp/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -0.1%, 0.6 pp below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 0.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.7% − 0.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 4.16 | 6.54 | 7.21 | 8.65 | 10.93 | 13.93 | 14.85 | 15.80 | 25.37 | 35.97 | 47.60 | 3128% |
| 2018 | 3.81 | 3.58 | 3.66 | 4.57 | 6.21 | 5.77 | 5.36 | 3.13 | 0.56 | -2.34 | 724% | |
| 2019 | 4.22 | 4.30 | 5.40 | 7.23 | 6.98 | 6.76 | 6.12 | 5.34 | 4.42 | 188% | ||
| 2020 | 5.47 | 6.34 | 8.40 | 8.39 | 8.41 | 9.65 | 10.98 | 12.40 | 912% | |||
| 2021 | 7.44 | 9.22 | 9.39 | 9.61 | 12.24 | 15.16 | 18.36 | 2418% | ||||
| 2022 | 7.33 | 8.58 | 8.71 | 10.36 | 12.22 | 14.28 | 1814% | |||||
| 2023 | 7.26 | 7.25 | 7.01 | 6.54 | 5.84 | |||||||
| 2024 | 7.25 | 7.01 | 6.54 | 5.84 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +1.4% | +2.4% | +3.4% | +4.4% | +5.5% | +6.5% | +7.5% | +8.5% | +9.6% | +10.6% | +11.6% | 3128% |
| 2018 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.9% | -1.2% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.6% | -2.9% | 724% | |
| 2019 | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.8% | -0.9% | 188% | ||
| 2020 | +1.3% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | 912% | |||
| 2021 | +2.0% | +1.8% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.2% | 2418% | ||||
| 2022 | -0.1% | +1.2% | +1.4% | +1.7% | +1.9% | +2.1% | 1814% | |||||
| 2023 | -0.1% | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.7% | |||||||
| 2024 | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.