China Share of Global Rare Earth Mining
China's share of global rare earth element mine production. Has fallen from ~95% in 2010 as Mountain Pass (US) and other mines came online, but remains the dominant single source. Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.
68.0%
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, accelerating by 119 bps/year over the last 7Y. Latest: -2.0%, 417 bps below trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 902 bps due to an tough comparison base from 2022.
Level
YoY Change
y = −6.2% + 119 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 80.0 | 84.0 | 79.0 | 75.0 | 74.0 | 80.0 | 94.0 | 95.9 | 127.9 | 163.8 | 203.7 | 463% |
| 2018 | 71.0 | 61.7 | 51.2 | 43.7 | 43.2 | 50.7 | 46.2 | 21.9 | -4.9 | -34.2 | 420% | |
| 2019 | 63.0 | 52.5 | 45.4 | 45.3 | 53.2 | 49.1 | 28.1 | 5.0 | -20.2 | 457% | ||
| 2020 | 58.0 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 59.8 | 56.8 | 44.6 | 31.4 | 17.2 | 371% | |||
| 2021 | 60.0 | 58.4 | 69.2 | 68.0 | 68.8 | 70.4 | 72.8 | 88% | ||||
| 2022 | 70.0 | 82.4 | 85.2 | 107.2 | 134.0 | 165.6 | 720% | |||||
| 2023 | 68.0 | 75.5 | 85.7 | 98.6 | 114.2 | |||||||
| 2024 | 75.5 | 85.7 | 98.6 | 114.2 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +0.0% | +4.0% | +8.0% | +12.0% | +16.0% | +20.0% | +23.9% | +27.9% | +31.9% | +35.9% | +39.9% | 463% |
| 2018 | -9.0% | -9.3% | -11.8% | -14.3% | -16.8% | -19.3% | -21.8% | -24.3% | -26.8% | -29.3% | 420% | |
| 2019 | -8.0% | -10.5% | -12.6% | -14.7% | -16.8% | -18.9% | -21.0% | -23.1% | -25.2% | 457% | ||
| 2020 | -5.0% | -8.2% | -9.2% | -10.2% | -11.2% | -12.2% | -13.2% | -14.2% | 371% | |||
| 2021 | +2.0% | -1.6% | -0.8% | +0.0% | +0.8% | +1.6% | +2.4% | 88% | ||||
| 2022 | +10.0% | +12.4% | +17.2% | +22.0% | +26.8% | +31.6% | 720% | |||||
| 2023 | -2.0% | +7.5% | +10.2% | +12.9% | +15.6% | |||||||
| 2024 | +7.5% | +10.2% | +12.9% | +15.6% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.