2026 Midterm Elections
Prediction market odds, consumer sentiment, and the economic indicators that historically predict midterm outcomes.
Updated today.
Prediction Markets
Prediction market probability that Democrats control the House after the 2026 midterms.
80.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Prediction market probability that Democrats control the Senate after the 2026 midterms.
47.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Prediction market probability of a US recession — recessions devastate the incumbent party at midterms.
21.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Consumer Mood
University of Michigan consumer sentiment — historically one of the strongest predictors of midterm outcomes.
49.80Index
Trend YoY growth is -2.2%, slowing by 5 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 16 consecutive periods. Latest: -4.6%, 2.4 pp below trend, a 0.15σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 30.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to -19.3% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.9% − 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The most visible price in the economy — voters feel gas prices daily and blame the party in power.
4.49$/gal
Trend YoY growth is +1.6%, slowing by 30 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +41.5%, 39.9 pp above trend, a 2.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.2% − 30 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Economic Conditions
Headline labor market indicator — rising unemployment historically costs the president's party seats.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, slowing by 2.9 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 36 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.1%, 45 bps above trend, a 0.26σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 62 bps due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.4% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Year-over-year consumer price inflation — high inflation erodes purchasing power and incumbent support.
4.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 66 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +1.6%, 1.5 pp above trend, a 0.67σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation-adjusted income available for spending — captures whether households are actually better off.
$18.1T
Trend YoY growth is +2.5%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 11 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.4%, 2.1 pp below trend, a 0.51σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.4% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
The economic conditions heading into the 2026 midterms are historically toxic for the Republican party, and prediction markets are pricing a Democratic House takeover at 85.5% for good reason, but the Senate at just 54.5% reveals meaningful uncertainty about how far the wave extends.
2026 Midterm Elections
Prediction market odds, consumer sentiment, and the economic indicators that historically predict midterm outcomes.
Updated today.
Prediction Markets
Prediction market probability that Democrats control the House after the 2026 midterms.
80.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Prediction market probability that Democrats control the Senate after the 2026 midterms.
47.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Prediction market probability of a US recession — recessions devastate the incumbent party at midterms.
21.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Consumer Mood
University of Michigan consumer sentiment — historically one of the strongest predictors of midterm outcomes.
49.80Index
Trend YoY growth is -2.2%, slowing by 5 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 16 consecutive periods. Latest: -4.6%, 2.4 pp below trend, a 0.15σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 30.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to -19.3% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = −0.9% − 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The most visible price in the economy — voters feel gas prices daily and blame the party in power.
4.49$/gal
Trend YoY growth is +1.6%, slowing by 30 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +41.5%, 39.9 pp above trend, a 2.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.4 pp due to an easy comparison base from May '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.2% − 30 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Economic Conditions
Headline labor market indicator — rising unemployment historically costs the president's party seats.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, slowing by 2.9 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 36 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.1%, 45 bps above trend, a 0.26σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 62 bps due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.4% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Year-over-year consumer price inflation — high inflation erodes purchasing power and incumbent support.
4.0%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 66 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +1.6%, 1.5 pp above trend, a 0.67σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation-adjusted income available for spending — captures whether households are actually better off.
$18.1T
Trend YoY growth is +2.5%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 11 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.4%, 2.1 pp below trend, a 0.51σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.4% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend