2026 Midterm Elections
Prediction market odds, consumer sentiment, and the economic indicators that historically predict midterm outcomes. Updated just now.
Prediction Markets
Prediction market probability that Democrats control the House after the 2026 midterms.
85.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Prediction market probability that Democrats control the Senate after the 2026 midterms.
55.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Prediction market probability of a US recession — recessions devastate the incumbent party at midterms.
31.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Consumer Mood
University of Michigan consumer sentiment — historically one of the strongest predictors of midterm outcomes.
56.60Index
Trend YoY growth is -2.1%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: -12.5%, 10.5 pp below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.0% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The most visible price in the economy — voters feel gas prices daily and blame the party in power.
4.12$/gal
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, slowing by 34 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +27.0%, 26.0 pp above trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.5% − 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Economic Conditions
Headline labor market indicator — rising unemployment historically costs the president's party seats.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, slowing by 2.9 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 35 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.1%, 46 bps above trend, a 0.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 63 bps due to an tough comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.4% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Year-over-year consumer price inflation — high inflation erodes purchasing power and incumbent support.
3.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.5%, 46 bps above trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation-adjusted income available for spending — captures whether households are actually better off.
18.1k$B
Trend YoY growth is +2.5%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 10 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.5 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 72 bps due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.3% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market Performance
Broad equity market performance — a strong market signals economic confidence heading into the vote.
6.8kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +15.6%, accelerating by 45 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.1%, 11.5 pp above trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.5% + 45 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Explore
2026 Midterm Elections
Prediction market odds, consumer sentiment, and the economic indicators that historically predict midterm outcomes. Updated just now.
Prediction Markets
Prediction market probability that Democrats control the House after the 2026 midterms.
85.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Prediction market probability that Democrats control the Senate after the 2026 midterms.
55.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Prediction market probability of a US recession — recessions devastate the incumbent party at midterms.
31.5%
Level
YoY Change (bps)
Consumer Mood
University of Michigan consumer sentiment — historically one of the strongest predictors of midterm outcomes.
56.60Index
Trend YoY growth is -2.1%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: -12.5%, 10.5 pp below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.0% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The most visible price in the economy — voters feel gas prices daily and blame the party in power.
4.12$/gal
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, slowing by 34 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +27.0%, 26.0 pp above trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 11.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 9.5% − 34 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Economic Conditions
Headline labor market indicator — rising unemployment historically costs the president's party seats.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, slowing by 2.9 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 35 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.1%, 46 bps above trend, a 0.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 63 bps due to an tough comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 0.4% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Year-over-year consumer price inflation — high inflation erodes purchasing power and incumbent support.
3.3%
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.5%, 46 bps above trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.1% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation-adjusted income available for spending — captures whether households are actually better off.
18.1k$B
Trend YoY growth is +2.5%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 10 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.5 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 72 bps due to an easy comparison base from Feb '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.3% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Market Performance
Broad equity market performance — a strong market signals economic confidence heading into the vote.
6.8kIndex
Trend YoY growth is +15.6%, accelerating by 45 bps/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +27.1%, 11.5 pp above trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 11.5% + 45 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend