Real Disposable Income
Inflation-adjusted income available for spending — captures whether households are actually better off.
18.1k$B
Trend YoY growth is +2.5%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 10 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.5 pp below trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 72 bps due to an easy comparison base from Feb 1.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.3% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($B)
Projected value ($B)
| Forecast made in | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '25 | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.0k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.1k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 25% |
| Aug '25 | 18.1k | 18.0k | 18.0k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.0k | 18.1k | 16% | |
| Sep '25 | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 12% | ||
| Oct '25 | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 16% | |||
| Nov '25 | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 16% | ||||
| Dec '25 | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 15% | |||||
| Jan '26 | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 23% | ||||||
| Feb '26 | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.3k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | ||||||||
| Mar '26 | 18.2k | 18.3k | 18.1k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k | 18.1k | 18.2k |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '25 | +1.7% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.7% | 25% |
| Aug '25 | +1.8% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% | 16% | |
| Sep '25 | +1.8% | +1.5% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 12% | ||
| Oct '25 | +1.4% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% | 16% | |||
| Nov '25 | +1.3% | +1.3% | +1.3% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | 16% | ||||
| Dec '25 | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 15% | |||||
| Jan '26 | +1.6% | +1.3% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.5% | 23% | ||||||
| Feb '26 | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% | ||||||||
| Mar '26 | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.