Unemployment Rate
Headline labor market indicator — rising unemployment historically costs the president's party seats.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is -0.4%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 36 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.1%, 45 bps above trend, a 0.26σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 62 bps due to an tough comparison base from Apr 1.
Level
YoY Change
y = 0.4% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug '25 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 124% |
| Sep '25 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 75% | |
| Nov '25 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 10% | ||||
| Dec '25 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 63% | |||||
| Jan '26 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 83% | ||||||
| Feb '26 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 200% | |||||||
| Mar '26 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 100% | ||||||||
| Apr '26 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | ||||||||||
| May '26 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug '25 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | 124% |
| Sep '25 | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 75% | |
| Nov '25 | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 10% | |||
| Dec '25 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 63% | ||||
| Jan '26 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 83% | |||||
| Feb '26 | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | 200% | ||||||
| Mar '26 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 100% | |||||||
| Apr '26 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | |||||||||
| May '26 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.