Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan consumer sentiment — historically one of the strongest predictors of midterm outcomes.
56.60Index
Trend YoY growth is -2.1%, slowing by 4 bps/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: -12.5%, 10.5 pp below trend, a 0.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 13.8 pp due to an easy comparison base from Feb 1. At current levels, YoY would rise to +8.4% by May '26 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.0% − 4 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (Index)
Projected value (Index)
| Forecast made in | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '25 | 61.70 | 52.32 | 52.46 | 51.24 | 50.60 | 50.56 | 47.40 | 41.33 | 35.27 | 31.14 | 30.02 | 33.57 | 32.80 | 29.64 | 26.84 | 24.96 | 22.62 | 22.33 | 22.55 | 21.38 | 12.61 | 50% |
| Aug '25 | 58.20 | 52.62 | 51.27 | 50.48 | 50.29 | 46.99 | 40.84 | 34.73 | 30.54 | 29.32 | 32.63 | 31.72 | 28.51 | 25.66 | 23.70 | 21.32 | 20.87 | 20.89 | 19.59 | 11.26 | 50% | |
| Sep '25 | 55.10 | 50.93 | 49.98 | 49.64 | 46.21 | 40.01 | 33.89 | 29.67 | 28.35 | 31.37 | 30.32 | 27.07 | 24.19 | 22.17 | 19.76 | 19.15 | 18.94 | 17.52 | 9.69 | 62% | ||
| Oct '25 | 53.60 | 50.51 | 50.21 | 46.80 | 40.56 | 34.40 | 30.15 | 28.85 | 31.98 | 30.96 | 27.70 | 24.80 | 22.79 | 20.36 | 19.80 | 19.65 | 18.26 | 10.29 | 69% | |||
| Nov '25 | 51.00 | 51.39 | 48.15 | 41.98 | 35.81 | 31.60 | 30.45 | 34.02 | 33.22 | 30.01 | 27.16 | 25.24 | 22.85 | 22.53 | 22.74 | 21.53 | 12.88 | 80% | ||||
| Dec '25 | 52.90 | 51.18 | 45.23 | 39.08 | 35.02 | 34.27 | 38.95 | 38.70 | 35.64 | 32.93 | 31.26 | 28.99 | 29.31 | 30.42 | 29.69 | 19.97 | 87% | |||||
| Jan '26 | 56.40 | 48.67 | 42.56 | 38.65 | 38.34 | 44.21 | 44.57 | 41.68 | 39.12 | 37.73 | 35.59 | 36.60 | 38.67 | 38.46 | 28.68 | 98% | ||||||
| Feb '26 | 56.60 | 45.52 | 41.73 | 41.78 | 48.64 | 49.50 | 46.74 | 44.30 | 43.14 | 41.10 | 42.68 | 45.55 | 45.77 | 36.84 | ||||||||
| Mar '26 | 45.52 | 41.73 | 41.78 | 48.64 | 49.50 | 46.74 | 44.30 | 43.14 | 41.10 | 42.68 | 45.55 | 45.77 | 36.84 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '25 | -7.1% | -22.9% | -25.2% | -27.3% | -29.5% | -31.7% | -33.9% | -36.1% | -38.1% | -40.3% | -42.5% | -44.7% | -46.8% | -49.1% | -51.3% | -53.4% | -55.6% | -57.8% | -60.0% | -62.2% | -64.2% | 50% |
| Aug '25 | -14.3% | -24.9% | -27.3% | -29.7% | -32.0% | -34.5% | -36.9% | -39.1% | -41.5% | -43.8% | -46.3% | -48.6% | -51.0% | -53.4% | -55.8% | -58.2% | -60.5% | -63.0% | -65.4% | -67.6% | 50% | |
| Sep '25 | -21.4% | -27.8% | -30.4% | -32.9% | -35.5% | -38.2% | -40.5% | -43.2% | -45.7% | -48.3% | -50.9% | -53.5% | -56.1% | -58.6% | -61.3% | -63.8% | -66.4% | -69.0% | -71.4% | 62% | ||
| Oct '25 | -24.0% | -29.7% | -32.2% | -34.7% | -37.3% | -39.7% | -42.2% | -44.7% | -47.3% | -49.8% | -52.4% | -55.0% | -57.5% | -60.1% | -62.6% | -65.2% | -67.7% | -70.1% | 69% | |||
| Nov '25 | -29.0% | -30.6% | -32.8% | -35.1% | -37.2% | -39.5% | -41.7% | -43.9% | -46.2% | -48.4% | -50.7% | -52.9% | -55.2% | -57.4% | -59.7% | -62.0% | -64.0% | 80% | ||||
| Dec '25 | -28.5% | -28.6% | -30.1% | -31.4% | -32.9% | -34.4% | -35.8% | -37.3% | -38.8% | -40.2% | -41.7% | -43.2% | -44.6% | -46.1% | -47.6% | -48.9% | 87% | |||||
| Jan '26 | -21.3% | -24.8% | -25.3% | -26.0% | -26.6% | -27.2% | -27.8% | -28.4% | -29.0% | -29.6% | -30.2% | -30.8% | -31.4% | -32.1% | -32.6% | 98% | ||||||
| Feb '26 | -12.5% | -20.1% | -20.0% | -20.0% | -19.9% | -19.8% | -19.7% | -19.6% | -19.5% | -19.4% | -19.3% | -19.2% | -19.1% | -19.1% | ||||||||
| Mar '26 | -20.1% | -20.0% | -20.0% | -19.9% | -19.8% | -19.7% | -19.6% | -19.5% | -19.4% | -19.3% | -19.2% | -19.1% | -19.1% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.