U.S. GDP & Components
U.S. GDP decomposed into its four expenditure components: consumption (C), investment (I), government spending (G), and net exports (X − M). Values in trillions
Updated Oct 1, 2025.
Output
Total U.S. gross domestic product in chained 2017 dollars — the broadest measure of economic output (FRED GDPC1, quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
24.06$T
Trend YoY growth is +2.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 78Y. Latest: +2.0%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.02σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 4.3% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Consumption (C)
Household spending on goods and services — typically ~68% of GDP and the largest component
18.75$T
Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 95Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.4%, 74 bps below trend, a 0.32σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 69 bps due to an easy comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Investment (I)
Business fixed investment, residential construction, and inventory changes — the most cyclical GDP component
5.01$T
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, slowing by 10 bps/year over the last 95Y. Latest: +1.4%, 45 bps above trend, a 0.05σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.1% − 10 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Government (G)
Federal, state, and local government spending on goods, services, and infrastructure
3.78$T
Trend YoY growth is -2.0%, slowing by 13 bps/year over the last 95Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.59σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.8% − 13 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Net Exports (X − M)
Exports minus imports — persistent deficits reflect U.S. consumption of foreign production
-1.02$T
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 95Y. Latest: -0.1%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.58σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.0% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Key Insight
U.S. real GDP growth has sharply decelerated to +1.9% in 2025 after running at +2.8% in 2024, and this slowdown is unusually broad-based across components, with the latest rolling forecast now projecting sub-1% growth and potential contraction by 2028.
U.S. GDP & Components
U.S. GDP decomposed into its four expenditure components: consumption (C), investment (I), government spending (G), and net exports (X − M). Values in trillions
Updated Oct 1, 2025.
Output
Total U.S. gross domestic product in chained 2017 dollars — the broadest measure of economic output (FRED GDPC1, quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
24.06$T
Trend YoY growth is +2.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 78Y. Latest: +2.0%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.02σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 4.3% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Consumption (C)
Household spending on goods and services — typically ~68% of GDP and the largest component
18.75$T
Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 95Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.4%, 74 bps below trend, a 0.32σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 69 bps due to an easy comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Investment (I)
Business fixed investment, residential construction, and inventory changes — the most cyclical GDP component
5.01$T
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, slowing by 10 bps/year over the last 95Y. Latest: +1.4%, 45 bps above trend, a 0.05σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.1% − 10 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Government (G)
Federal, state, and local government spending on goods, services, and infrastructure
3.78$T
Trend YoY growth is -2.0%, slowing by 13 bps/year over the last 95Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.59σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.8% − 13 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Net Exports (X − M)
Exports minus imports — persistent deficits reflect U.S. consumption of foreign production
-1.02$T
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 95Y. Latest: -0.1%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.58σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.0% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend