Key Insight

U.S. real GDP growth has sharply decelerated to +1.9% in 2025 after running at +2.8% in 2024, and this slowdown is unusually broad-based across components, with the latest rolling forecast now projecting sub-1% growth and potential contraction by 2028.

Generated by Claude on Apr 15, 2026

U.S. GDP & Components

U.S. GDP decomposed into its four expenditure components: consumption (C), investment (I), government spending (G), and net exports (X − M). Values in trillions

Updated Oct 1, 2025.

Exclude COVID

Output

Real GDP

Total U.S. gross domestic product in chained 2017 dollars — the broadest measure of economic output (FRED GDPC1, quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate)

▲ +2.0% YoY

24.06$T

Trend YoY growth is +2.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 78Y. Latest: +2.0%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.02σ deviation.

Level

YoY %

y = 4.3% 3 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Consumption (C)

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Household spending on goods and services — typically ~68% of GDP and the largest component

▲ +3.1% YoY

18.75$T

Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 95Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.4%, 74 bps below trend, a 0.32σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 69 bps due to an easy comparison base from 2024.

Level

YoY %

y = 3.0% + 0 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Investment (I)

Gross Private Domestic Investment

Business fixed investment, residential construction, and inventory changes — the most cyclical GDP component

▲ +1.0% YoY

5.01$T

Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, slowing by 10 bps/year over the last 95Y. Latest: +1.4%, 45 bps above trend, a 0.05σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.

Level

YoY %

y = 10.1% 10 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Government (G)

Government Consumption & Investment

Federal, state, and local government spending on goods, services, and infrastructure

▼ -2.0% YoY

3.78$T

Trend YoY growth is -2.0%, slowing by 13 bps/year over the last 95Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.59σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.

Level

YoY %

y = 10.8% 13 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Net Exports (X − M)

Net Exports of Goods & Services

Exports minus imports — persistent deficits reflect U.S. consumption of foreign production

▼ -0.0% YoY

-1.02$T

Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 95Y. Latest: -0.1%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.58σ deviation.

Level

Change (pp)

y = 0.0% 0 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend