Gross Private Domestic Investment
Business fixed investment, residential construction, and inventory changes — the most cyclical GDP component
5.01$T
Trend YoY growth is +1.0%, slowing by 10 bps/year over the last 95Y. Latest: +1.4%, 45 bps above trend, a 0.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 2.1 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024. At current levels, YoY would fall to +0.0% by Jan '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.1% − 10 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($T)
Projected value ($T)
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 4.42 | 4.57 | 4.61 | 4.42 | 4.87 | 4.88 | 4.95 | 5.11 | 5.18 | 5.36 | 5.54 | 5.73 | 332% |
| 2019 | 4.46 | 4.56 | 4.36 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.86 | 5.00 | 5.07 | 5.12 | 5.16 | 5.19 | 177% | |
| 2020 | 4.27 | 4.20 | 4.60 | 4.58 | 4.61 | 4.71 | 4.74 | 4.45 | 4.14 | 3.82 | 453% | ||
| 2021 | 4.71 | 4.91 | 4.93 | 5.02 | 5.19 | 5.28 | 5.59 | 5.93 | 6.31 | 604% | |||
| 2022 | 4.72 | 4.83 | 4.90 | 5.05 | 5.11 | 5.21 | 5.31 | 5.41 | 47% | ||||
| 2023 | 4.79 | 4.95 | 5.14 | 5.24 | 5.51 | 5.82 | 6.18 | 95% | |||||
| 2024 | 4.94 | 5.14 | 5.24 | 5.51 | 5.83 | 6.20 | 182% | ||||||
| 2025 | 5.01 | 4.95 | 4.82 | 4.62 | 4.36 | ||||||||
| 2026 | 4.95 | 4.82 | 4.62 | 4.36 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +5.2% | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | 332% |
| 2019 | +0.9% | +2.2% | +2.0% | +1.8% | +1.7% | +1.5% | +1.3% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.8% | +0.6% | 177% | |
| 2020 | -4.3% | -1.5% | -2.3% | -3.1% | -3.8% | -4.6% | -5.4% | -6.1% | -6.9% | -7.7% | 453% | ||
| 2021 | +10.3% | +4.2% | +4.5% | +4.8% | +5.1% | +5.5% | +5.8% | +6.1% | +6.4% | 604% | |||
| 2022 | +0.2% | +2.3% | +2.2% | +2.2% | +2.1% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +1.9% | 47% | ||||
| 2023 | +1.5% | +3.4% | +4.0% | +4.5% | +5.1% | +5.7% | +6.2% | 95% | |||||
| 2024 | +3.1% | +4.0% | +4.6% | +5.2% | +5.8% | +6.4% | 182% | ||||||
| 2025 | +1.4% | -1.1% | -2.6% | -4.1% | -5.6% | ||||||||
| 2026 | -1.1% | -2.6% | -4.1% | -5.6% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.