Personal Consumption Expenditures
Household spending on goods and services — typically ~68% of GDP and the largest component
Key Insight
Household consumption grew +2.4% in 2025 to $18.75T, essentially matching 2024's +2.4% pace and holding the expansion together even as investment, government spending, and trade all decelerated or reversed.
18.75$T
Trend YoY growth is +3.1%, accelerating by 0 bps/year over the last 95Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.4%, 0.7 pp below trend, a 0.32σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 0.7 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 3.0% + 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($T)
Projected value ($T)
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 16.35 | 16.79 | 17.12 | 16.44 | 17.62 | 18.00 | 18.35 | 18.78 | 19.22 | 19.70 | 20.19 | 20.68 | 47% |
| 2019 | 16.68 | 16.99 | 16.27 | 17.39 | 17.73 | 18.02 | 18.40 | 18.78 | 18.76 | 18.69 | 18.57 | 77% | |
| 2020 | 16.02 | 15.57 | 16.46 | 16.60 | 16.68 | 16.84 | 16.99 | 15.17 | 13.35 | 11.57 | 325% | ||
| 2021 | 17.17 | 17.67 | 18.11 | 18.51 | 19.01 | 19.51 | 20.35 | 21.28 | 22.32 | 51% | |||
| 2022 | 17.55 | 18.11 | 18.53 | 19.05 | 19.57 | 20.50 | 21.55 | 22.73 | 62% | ||||
| 2023 | 17.89 | 18.55 | 19.11 | 19.67 | 20.75 | 22.01 | 23.48 | 69% | |||||
| 2024 | 18.32 | 19.09 | 19.68 | 20.80 | 22.14 | 23.73 | 79% | ||||||
| 2025 | 18.75 | 18.82 | 18.71 | 18.43 | 17.98 | ||||||||
| 2026 | 18.82 | 18.71 | 18.43 | 17.98 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +2.9% | +2.7% | +2.7% | +2.6% | +2.6% | +2.6% | +2.6% | +2.5% | +2.5% | +2.5% | +2.5% | +2.4% | 47% |
| 2019 | +2.0% | +1.8% | +1.6% | +1.3% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.5% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -0.7% | 77% | |
| 2020 | -4.0% | -2.8% | -4.1% | -5.4% | -6.7% | -8.1% | -9.4% | -10.7% | -12.0% | -13.3% | 325% | ||
| 2021 | +7.2% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +4.0% | +4.3% | +4.6% | +4.9% | 51% | |||
| 2022 | +2.2% | +3.2% | +3.6% | +4.0% | +4.4% | +4.7% | +5.1% | +5.5% | 62% | ||||
| 2023 | +1.9% | +3.7% | +4.3% | +4.9% | +5.5% | +6.1% | +6.7% | 69% | |||||
| 2024 | +2.4% | +4.2% | +5.0% | +5.7% | +6.4% | +7.2% | 79% | ||||||
| 2025 | +2.4% | +0.4% | -0.6% | -1.5% | -2.5% | ||||||||
| 2026 | +0.4% | -0.6% | -1.5% | -2.5% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.