Government Consumption & Investment
Federal, state, and local government spending on goods, services, and infrastructure
Key Insight
Real government consumption and investment grew +1.9% in 2025 to $3.78T, the slowest pace in four years — suggesting the fiscal impulse that supported 2022–2024 growth is now fading rather than accelerating, even as headline deficits remain elevated.
3.78$T
Trend YoY growth is -2.0%, slowing by 0.1 pp/year over the last 95Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.9%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.59σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 4.3 pp due to an tough comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 10.8% − 0.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($T)
Projected value ($T)
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3.39 | 3.46 | 3.60 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.78 | 3.89 | 3.98 | 4.21 | 4.47 | 4.77 | 329% |
| 2019 | 3.51 | 3.62 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 4.01 | 4.27 | 4.57 | 4.91 | 453% | |
| 2020 | 3.56 | 3.66 | 3.66 | 3.66 | 3.77 | 3.87 | 3.96 | 4.17 | 4.40 | 4.66 | 401% | ||
| 2021 | 3.55 | 3.58 | 3.56 | 3.65 | 3.73 | 3.80 | 3.81 | 3.82 | 3.82 | 121% | |||
| 2022 | 3.53 | 3.48 | 3.53 | 3.59 | 3.62 | 3.43 | 3.22 | 2.99 | 210% | ||||
| 2023 | 3.62 | 3.63 | 3.70 | 3.76 | 3.72 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 106% | |||||
| 2024 | 3.71 | 3.81 | 3.90 | 4.04 | 4.21 | 4.40 | 38% | ||||||
| 2025 | 3.78 | 3.91 | 4.07 | 4.27 | 4.51 | ||||||||
| 2026 | 3.91 | 4.07 | 4.27 | 4.51 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +2.1% | +2.1% | +2.6% | +3.0% | +3.5% | +3.9% | +4.4% | +4.8% | +5.3% | +5.7% | +6.2% | +6.7% | 329% |
| 2019 | +3.5% | +3.1% | +3.6% | +4.1% | +4.6% | +5.1% | +5.6% | +6.1% | +6.6% | +7.0% | +7.5% | 453% | |
| 2020 | +1.4% | +2.8% | +3.2% | +3.6% | +4.0% | +4.4% | +4.8% | +5.2% | +5.6% | +6.0% | 401% | ||
| 2021 | -0.3% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.1% | 121% | |||
| 2022 | -0.6% | -1.5% | -2.4% | -3.3% | -4.3% | -5.2% | -6.1% | -7.0% | 210% | ||||
| 2023 | +2.5% | +0.1% | -0.3% | -0.6% | -1.0% | -1.4% | -1.8% | 106% | |||||
| 2024 | +2.5% | +2.6% | +3.1% | +3.6% | +4.1% | +4.6% | 38% | ||||||
| 2025 | +1.9% | +3.4% | +4.2% | +4.9% | +5.7% | ||||||||
| 2026 | +3.4% | +4.2% | +4.9% | +5.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.