Net Exports of Goods & Services
Exports minus imports — persistent deficits reflect U.S. consumption of foreign production
Key Insight
The trade deficit widened back to -$1.02T in 2025 after three years of steady improvement, reversing roughly a quarter of the post-2021 narrowing and subtracting meaningfully from headline GDP growth.
-1.02$T
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 0 bps/year over the last 95Y. Latest: -0.1%, 5 bps below trend, a 0.58σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.0% − 0 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($T)
Projected value ($T)
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | -0.94 | -1.01 | -0.98 | -1.03 | -1.30 | -1.20 | -1.10 | -1.06 | -1.14 | -1.27 | -1.40 | -1.54 | 191% |
| 2019 | -0.90 | -0.86 | -0.88 | -1.12 | -0.99 | -0.85 | -0.78 | -0.83 | -0.61 | -0.37 | -0.10 | 132% | |
| 2020 | -0.94 | -0.98 | -1.25 | -1.15 | -1.05 | -1.01 | -1.09 | -1.16 | -1.24 | -1.33 | 157% | ||
| 2021 | -1.21 | -1.41 | -1.34 | -1.28 | -1.28 | -1.39 | -1.80 | -2.25 | -2.74 | 436% | |||
| 2022 | -1.10 | -1.12 | -1.00 | -0.96 | -1.02 | -1.01 | -0.99 | -0.96 | 100% | ||||
| 2023 | -0.99 | -0.91 | -0.84 | -0.89 | -0.73 | -0.54 | -0.32 | 196% | |||||
| 2024 | -0.95 | -0.80 | -0.81 | -0.55 | -0.24 | 0.13 | 386% | ||||||
| 2025 | -1.02 | -0.94 | -0.82 | -0.67 | -0.49 | ||||||||
| 2026 | -0.94 | -0.82 | -0.67 | -0.49 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 191% |
| 2019 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | 132% | |
| 2020 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 157% | ||
| 2021 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | 436% | |||
| 2022 | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||
| 2023 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 196% | |||||
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | 386% | ||||||
| 2025 | -0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | ||||||||
| 2026 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.