Debt crisis from low fertility and transfers from young to old
Rich and middle-income countries made long-duration promises in a lower-rate, younger, less fragmented world. That world is disappearing. Tracking the gap betwe Most recent data from today.
The Promises
Total transfer payments to persons — Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlements at SAAR.
$1.2T
Trend YoY growth is +14.4%, accelerating by 72 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +6.2%, 8.2 pp below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −3.5% + 72 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total federal government spending at SAAR — the numerator of the fiscal equation.
$7.6T
Trend YoY growth is +7.1%, accelerating by 7 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +4.6%, 2.5 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.4% + 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total federal tax and fee revenue at SAAR — the denominator of the fiscal equation.
$5.9T
Trend YoY growth is +7.6%, accelerating by 25 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +11.4%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 55 bps due to an tough comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.3% + 25 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The Gap
Annual fiscal balance — negative values show spending exceeding revenue. Structural deficits above 3% compound debt.
-5.8%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 5.7 pp/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.4%, 6 bps above trend, a 0.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −1.0% + 6 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total public debt relative to economic output — the headline solvency metric.
122.6%
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, slowing by 3.3 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 9 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 3.0% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Federal debt relative to household net worth — measures the debt burden against the nation's total wealth base.
20.9% of net worth
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -0.4%, 40 bps below trend, a 0.4σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Debt Service
The cost of long-duration government borrowing — where promises meet market pricing of fiscal risk.
4.9%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2.8 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +0.1%, 24 bps below trend, a 1.6σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.4% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Long-duration bond prices — falls when markets demand higher compensation for fiscal risk.
$86.3
Trend YoY growth is -6.9%, slowing by 1.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 153 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.0%, 9.9 pp above trend, a 4.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 8.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.8% − 1.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Foreign appetite for U.S. debt — declining share signals eroding external confidence in fiscal sustainability.
$9.2T
Trend YoY growth is +3.0%, slowing by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +5.5%, 2.5 pp above trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 13.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.9% − 53 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The Squeeze
Share of working-age adults in the labor force — declining participation shrinks the tax base funding entitlements.
61.9%
Trend YoY growth is -0.1%, accelerating by 1.0 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -0.6%, 54 bps below trend, a 1.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.3% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation is the stealth resolution mechanism — it erodes the real value of fixed-dollar promises.
330.3Index
Trend YoY growth is +3.2%, accelerating by 5 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +3.3%, 13 bps above trend, a 0.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 76 bps due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +2.8% by May '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.9% + 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Explore
Debt crisis from low fertility and transfers from young to old
Rich and middle-income countries made long-duration promises in a lower-rate, younger, less fragmented world. That world is disappearing. Tracking the gap betwe Most recent data from today.
The Promises
Total transfer payments to persons — Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlements at SAAR.
$1.2T
Trend YoY growth is +14.4%, accelerating by 72 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +6.2%, 8.2 pp below trend, a 0.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.6 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = −3.5% + 72 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total federal government spending at SAAR — the numerator of the fiscal equation.
$7.6T
Trend YoY growth is +7.1%, accelerating by 7 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +4.6%, 2.5 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.4% + 7 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total federal tax and fee revenue at SAAR — the denominator of the fiscal equation.
$5.9T
Trend YoY growth is +7.6%, accelerating by 25 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +11.4%, 3.9 pp above trend, a 0.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 55 bps due to an tough comparison base from Oct '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.3% + 25 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The Gap
Annual fiscal balance — negative values show spending exceeding revenue. Structural deficits above 3% compound debt.
-5.8%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 5.7 pp/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.4%, 6 bps above trend, a 0.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −1.0% + 6 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Total public debt relative to economic output — the headline solvency metric.
122.6%
Trend YoY growth is +2.2%, slowing by 3.3 pp/year over the last 25Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 9 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.1%, 1.1 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = 3.0% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Federal debt relative to household net worth — measures the debt burden against the nation's total wealth base.
20.9% of net worth
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, slowing by 3 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -0.4%, 40 bps below trend, a 0.4σ deviation.
Level
Change (pp)
y = 0.7% − 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Debt Service
The cost of long-duration government borrowing — where promises meet market pricing of fiscal risk.
4.9%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 2.8 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +0.1%, 24 bps below trend, a 1.6σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.4% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Long-duration bond prices — falls when markets demand higher compensation for fiscal risk.
$86.3
Trend YoY growth is -6.9%, slowing by 1.4 pp/year over the last 9Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 153 consecutive periods. Latest: +3.0%, 9.9 pp above trend, a 4.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 8.5 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.8% − 1.4 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Foreign appetite for U.S. debt — declining share signals eroding external confidence in fiscal sustainability.
$9.2T
Trend YoY growth is +3.0%, slowing by 53 bps/year over the last 24Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +5.5%, 2.5 pp above trend, a 0.4σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 13.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from Jul '24.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.9% − 53 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
The Squeeze
Share of working-age adults in the labor force — declining participation shrinks the tax base funding entitlements.
61.9%
Trend YoY growth is -0.1%, accelerating by 1.0 pp/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -0.6%, 54 bps below trend, a 1.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change (bps)
y = −0.3% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Inflation is the stealth resolution mechanism — it erodes the real value of fixed-dollar promises.
330.3Index
Trend YoY growth is +3.2%, accelerating by 5 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +3.3%, 13 bps above trend, a 0.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 76 bps due to an easy comparison base from Mar '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +2.8% by May '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 1.9% + 5 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend