Federal Deficit as % of GDP
Annual fiscal balance — negative values show spending exceeding revenue. Structural deficits above 3% compound debt.
Key Insight
The annual federal deficit is running near -6.2% of GDP in FY2025 — structurally, not cyclically, and deteriorating despite full employment, making it the largest peacetime non-recession deficit in US history.
-5.8%
Trend YoY growth is +0.4%, accelerating by 6 bps/year over the last 24Y. Latest: +0.4%, 6 bps above trend, a 0.02σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change
y = −1.0% + 6 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | -3.8 | -4.9 | -6.1 | -16.4 | -14.0 | -8.0 | -9.2 | -9.7 | -9.6 | -13.9 | -18.6 | -23.6 | 553% |
| 2019 | -4.6 | -5.5 | -15.6 | -13.0 | -6.8 | -7.8 | -8.1 | -7.9 | -10.2 | -12.7 | -15.4 | 365% | |
| 2020 | -14.5 | -22.6 | -21.7 | -17.2 | -19.9 | -21.9 | -23.4 | -42.8 | -64.2 | -87.5 | 3264% | ||
| 2021 | -11.7 | -14.4 | -8.3 | -9.5 | -9.9 | -9.9 | -14.3 | -19.0 | -24.1 | 978% | |||
| 2022 | -5.3 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 15.8 | 29.2 | 44.3 | 2538% | ||||
| 2023 | -6.1 | -1.6 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 11.3 | 22.3 | 34.9 | 2402% | |||||
| 2024 | -6.2 | -1.7 | 0.3 | 8.0 | 17.3 | 28.2 | 947% | ||||||
| 2025 | -5.8 | -7.4 | -10.2 | -14.1 | -19.1 | ||||||||
| 2026 | -7.4 | -10.2 | -14.1 | -19.1 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | -0.4% | -1.1% | -1.5% | -1.9% | -2.3% | -2.7% | -3.1% | -3.5% | -3.9% | -4.3% | -4.6% | -5.0% | 553% |
| 2019 | -0.8% | -0.9% | -1.1% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.5% | -2.7% | 365% | |
| 2020 | -9.9% | -8.1% | -10.0% | -11.9% | -13.8% | -15.7% | -17.6% | -19.5% | -21.4% | -23.3% | 3264% | ||
| 2021 | +2.8% | -2.7% | -3.1% | -3.4% | -3.7% | -4.1% | -4.4% | -4.8% | -5.1% | 978% | |||
| 2022 | +6.4% | +4.8% | +6.5% | +8.2% | +9.9% | +11.7% | +13.4% | +15.1% | 2538% | ||||
| 2023 | -0.8% | +4.4% | +6.1% | +7.7% | +9.4% | +11.0% | +12.6% | 2402% | |||||
| 2024 | -0.1% | +4.5% | +6.1% | +7.7% | +9.3% | +10.9% | 947% | ||||||
| 2025 | +0.4% | -1.6% | -2.8% | -3.9% | -5.0% | ||||||||
| 2026 | -1.6% | -2.8% | -3.9% | -5.0% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.