Labor Force Participation Rate
Share of working-age adults in the labor force — declining participation shrinks the tax base funding entitlements.
Key Insight
Labor force participation is running near 62.5% in March 2026, roughly 1 pp below its pre-pandemic peak and nearly 5 pp below its 2000 all-time high of 67.3% — a structural shortfall that, combined with an aging population, quietly caps the economy's revenue-generating capacity.
61.9%
Trend YoY growth is -0.1%, accelerating by 1 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: -0.6%, 54 bps below trend, a 1.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.3% + 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '25 | 62.2 | 62.4 | 62.4 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 62.1 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 62.0 | 62.1 | 61.9 | 61.7 | 61.6 | 61.7 | 61.8 | 61.4 | 61.8 | 61.7 | 61.3 | 61.2 | 61.1 | 61.2 | 22% |
| Aug '25 | 62.3 | 62.4 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 62.1 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 62.0 | 62.1 | 61.8 | 61.7 | 61.6 | 61.7 | 61.8 | 61.4 | 61.8 | 61.6 | 61.3 | 61.2 | 61.1 | 61.2 | 40% | |
| Sep '25 | 62.5 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 62.1 | 62.2 | 62.0 | 62.0 | 62.1 | 61.9 | 61.8 | 61.6 | 61.7 | 61.9 | 61.5 | 61.8 | 61.7 | 61.4 | 61.3 | 61.1 | 61.3 | 11% | ||
| Nov '25 | 62.5 | 62.2 | 62.3 | 62.2 | 62.2 | 62.3 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 61.9 | 62.0 | 62.2 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 61.7 | 61.6 | 61.5 | 61.9 | 42% | |||||
| Dec '25 | 62.4 | 62.4 | 62.3 | 62.3 | 62.3 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 61.9 | 62.0 | 62.2 | 62.2 | 62.0 | 61.7 | 61.6 | 61.5 | 62.0 | 56% | ||||||
| Jan '26 | 62.1 | 62.2 | 62.2 | 62.3 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 61.9 | 61.9 | 62.1 | 62.1 | 62.0 | 61.7 | 61.6 | 61.4 | 61.8 | 50% | |||||||
| Feb '26 | 62.0 | 62.1 | 62.2 | 62.0 | 61.9 | 61.8 | 61.9 | 62.0 | 62.0 | 61.9 | 61.6 | 61.5 | 61.3 | 61.6 | 33% | ||||||||
| Mar '26 | 61.9 | 62.1 | 61.9 | 61.8 | 61.7 | 61.8 | 61.9 | 61.9 | 61.8 | 61.5 | 61.3 | 61.2 | 61.4 | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | 62.1 | 61.9 | 61.8 | 61.7 | 61.8 | 61.9 | 61.9 | 61.8 | 61.5 | 61.3 | 61.2 | 61.4 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '25 | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | 22% |
| Aug '25 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | 40% | |
| Sep '25 | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | 11% | ||
| Nov '25 | +0.0% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 42% | ||||
| Dec '25 | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 56% | |||||
| Jan '26 | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | 50% | ||||||
| Feb '26 | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 33% | |||||||
| Mar '26 | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | |||||||||
| Apr '26 | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.