30-Year Treasury Yield
The cost of long-duration government borrowing — where promises meet market pricing of fiscal risk.
5.2%
Trend YoY growth is +0.3%, accelerating by 3 bps/year over the last 26Y. Latest: +0.3%, 1 bps above trend, a 0.10σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.4% + 3 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (%)
Projected value (%)
| Forecast made in | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | Sep '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan '26 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 93% |
| Feb '26 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 75% | |
| Mar '26 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 75% | ||
| Apr '26 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 66% | |||
| May '26 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 110% | ||||
| Jun '26 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 115% | |||||
| Jul '26 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 100% | ||||||
| Aug '26 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.3 | ||||||||
| Sep '26 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | Jun '27 | Jul '27 | Aug '27 | Sep '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan '26 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 93% |
| Feb '26 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 75% | |
| Mar '26 | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | 75% | ||
| Apr '26 | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | 66% | |||
| May '26 | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | 110% | ||||
| Jun '26 | +0.1% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 115% | |||||
| Jul '26 | +0.5% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | 100% | ||||||
| Aug '26 | +0.3% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | ||||||||
| Sep '26 | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.