Federal Debt Held by the Public (% of National Wealth)
Publicly-held federal debt — the standard headline measure that excludes intragovernmental holdings — relative to household net worth.
16.8% of net worth
Trend YoY growth is +0.2%, slowing by 1 bps/year over the last 24Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 4 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.2%, 0.4 pp below trend, a 0.51σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 1 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (% of net worth)
Projected value (% of net worth)
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 15.5 | 16.1 | 15.7 | 17.6 | 16.5 | 18.5 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 21.0 | 23.4 | 26.1 | 374% |
| 2019 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 16.4 | 15.0 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 16.6 | 16.3 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 114% | |
| 2020 | 16.6 | 18.0 | 17.1 | 19.2 | 19.8 | 19.9 | 20.1 | 23.8 | 27.8 | 32.3 | 723% | ||
| 2021 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 17.0 | 17.1 | 16.9 | 16.6 | 16.4 | 16.1 | 15.8 | 83% | |||
| 2022 | 17.1 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 17.8 | 17.6 | 18.4 | 19.4 | 20.3 | 351% | ||||
| 2023 | 17.3 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.0 | 19.4 | 21.0 | 22.8 | 502% | |||||
| 2024 | 17.0 | 16.7 | 16.2 | 15.4 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 25% | ||||||
| 2025 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 17.0 | ||||||||
| 2026 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 17.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +1.3% | +0.6% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.2% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +2.6% | 374% |
| 2019 | -0.7% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 114% | |
| 2020 | +1.7% | +1.4% | +1.8% | +2.2% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.3% | +3.7% | +4.1% | +4.5% | 723% | ||
| 2021 | -1.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 83% | |||
| 2022 | +1.8% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.9% | 351% | ||||
| 2023 | +0.2% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.8% | 502% | |||||
| 2024 | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.6% | -0.8% | -1.0% | -1.3% | 25% | ||||||
| 2025 | -0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | ||||||||
| 2026 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.