Federal Current Expenditures
Total federal government spending at SAAR — the numerator of the fiscal equation.
Key Insight
Federal current expenditures are running near $7.6T SAAR in early 2026, a ~42% increase from pre-pandemic levels, with essentially all of the growth concentrated in mandatory spending (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) and interest — the discretionary side has actually shrunk in real terms.
$7.7T
Trend YoY growth is +7.0%, accelerating by 6 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +5.0%, 2.0 pp below trend, a 0.13σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would fall to +1.3% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.
Level
YoY %
y = 5.4% + 6 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($B)
Projected value ($B)
| Forecast made in | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 '25 | $7.5T | $8.0T | $8.1T | $8.3T | $8.5T | $8.7T | $8.8T | $9.0T | $10.1T | 140% |
| Q3 '25 | $7.6T | $7.9T | $7.9T | $8.2T | $8.3T | $8.3T | $8.4T | $9.0T | 77% | |
| Q4 '25 | $7.6T | $7.8T | $8.0T | $8.1T | $8.1T | $8.2T | $8.5T | 31% | ||
| Q1 '26 | $7.7T | $8.0T | $8.0T | $8.0T | $8.1T | $8.4T | ||||
| Q2 '26 | $8.0T | $8.0T | $8.0T | $8.1T | $8.4T |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 '25 | +7.8% | +11.3% | +12.2% | +13.1% | +14.0% | +15.0% | +15.9% | +16.8% | +17.7% | 140% |
| Q3 '25 | +5.8% | +8.4% | +8.7% | +9.0% | +9.2% | +9.5% | +9.8% | +10.1% | 77% | |
| Q4 '25 | +4.6% | +6.6% | +6.6% | +6.6% | +6.5% | +6.5% | +6.5% | 31% | ||
| Q1 '26 | +5.0% | +6.1% | +6.0% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% | ||||
| Q2 '26 | +6.1% | +6.0% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 3Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.